[04:20:37 PM] => Welcome to the Live Chat at ChatMasala
[04:21:38 PM] => Mr. Nimis Sheth of Phoenix Shares & Stock Brokers will be joining us shortly
[04:39:48 PM] => Myiris: Dear Friends, Mr Nimis Sheth is held up in a meeting, will be joining in another 15 minutes. Sorry for the delay.
[04:42:07 PM] => DISCLAIMER
[04:43:41 PM] => Mr. Nimis Sheth is the Founder Director of Phoenix Share & Stockbrokers Pvt. Ltd. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Sheth may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below , although holdings may change at any time.
[04:45:46 PM] => The views expressed by Mr. Nimis Sheth is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Sheth, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed. None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:47:47 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Sheth have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:56:52 PM] => Myiris : Welcome to the Live Chat Session Mr Nimis Sheth
[04:57:40 PM] => Nimis Sheth : Good evening : Sorry for the delay friends
[04:58:03 PM] => Vrvinay : can I buy amararaja,pentamedia and german remedies at current prices?
[04:58:24 PM] => NS: Except german avoid the other two.
[04:58:45 PM] => Prasoon: Do you see any fundamental positives for Satyam?
[04:59:27 PM] => NS: The fundamentals are good. The stock is cheap for it�s size of business relative to its peers like Infosys & Wipro. Satyam should do an eps of 16 for march 2002. But it�s overowned. So any scare like a major sellout in the NASDAQ could see the stock go much lower. Buy with a Rs.180 stop loss.
[05:00:13 PM] => Chandraveer: Can I buy shares of infosys. At present rate?
[05:01:05 PM] => NS: At the current price of 3750, infosys is at a 30 p/e to current year�s estimated eps of Rs 125. Leave yourself some room for error. A price of Rs.3000 and less should get you a decent appreciation through the year.
[05:01:59 PM] => Hanz1964 : Is the rate of Centurion Bank shares buoyant?
[05:02:56 PM] => NS: Why buy stocks like this. Weak management. Poor balance sheet. Go for better managed banks & stronger banks like IDBI bank or UTI bank.
[05:03:22 PM] => Pathem : Should I hold VSNL shares? What is the prospect for SAIL shares at current price?
[05:04:14 PM] => NS: VSNL is attractive at around Rs.300. Wait for a correction. Avoid SAIL. Tisco is a far superior investment.
[05:05:00 PM] => Chetan : Is Mukta Arts a good buy in medium term
[05:06:02 PM] => NS: Definitely. All the main events are falling in place. Yaadein music has been released. The movie is being released by the end of July. And then the film library will be rented out sometime this quarter. I expect a Rs 45 crore profit for the YE Dec 2001 and perhaps Rs.25-30 crores the next year. 3 movies have already been finalized for 2002 release. Mukta is not to be valued on an EPS basis. Only event basis.
[05:07:51 PM] => Linus: Can you tell me offhand figure as to what return has the sensex given in last 3, 5 ,10 years?
[05:08:18 PM] => NS: Not sure but I got into the market 10 years ago at an index of 1800. So it has doubled in ten years. 5 years ago i.e. 1995 the market had come off its 4500 high of 1994 to I guess 3500 levels again. Three years ago May 1998, we had just seen the 2800 levels after the fall of the Vajpayee govt.
[05:08:46 PM] => NS: Hey India is not a buy-and-hold market. One has to buy during panic situations (typically 2, 3 times a year) and sell when predetermined price or index levels are reached.
[05:09:12 PM] => Janki: Are our first rung IT stocks fairly valued? Where do we go from here
[05:09:50 PM] => NS: No the are a bit expensive assuming a 30%-40% growth. But things are very hazy still and a full fledged recovery in the US economy might not happen till Q1 of 2002. So we still have a quarter or two where a �panic situation� can come in. It should be remembered that we are at close to the end of interest rate cuts. And funds are sitting on very high levels of cash. So any situation where a �growth� in corporate earnings can be seen will trigger a big buying binge in the US equities markets.
[05:10:24 PM] => Kanshi : Is the pharma sector the new sector for 'Teji' ? Is it going to be the IT boom bubble for 2001 - 2002 ?
[05:10:49 PM] => Pharma stocks don�t come cheap. Cipla, Dr Reddy etc. are at 30-40 p/e�s. Lets not get carried away. Invest when these stocks come off.
[05:11:14 PM] => NS: E.g Reddy has moved from 900 to 1400. It could go up further. But your investment should be made when the markets or the stock corrects.
[05:11:42 PM] => NS: There is good value is stocks like Pfizer and some other MNC pharma stocks. The big money though will be made in Indian pharma stocks. Buy size. Cipla Dr. Reddy maybe Nicholas.
[05:12:17 PM] => Jamshed : Your view on the Telecom and telecom Equipment Industry at this time and place. Is it worth looking at MTNL, VSNL, Himachal at these levels entering at current levels
[05:12:47 PM] => NS: The major story of the year. Expect huge IPOs or fund raising from public from Bharti & Reliance. MTNL is great value. VSNL is an important part of the pie that any major major telecom network would ideally like to own.
[05:13:18 PM] => NS: I do not know much about Himachal. Though a technical move up can always occur. Wait for the annual report to figure what he really does. I really am not qualified enough to answer this.
[05:15:21 PM] => Hanif : Is the Stock Market a casion of sentiments or is price discovery based on a great deal of fundamentals
[05:16:01 PM] => NS: Sentiments are to be used to buy (invest) and sell. Buy into on panic days and sell when everything for the company or markets looks super.
[05:16:29 PM] => Trajesh : Given your research experience what scrips and where would you put your money?
[05:17:20 PM] => NS: Not in order of preference. I like Tata Power, ACC, Grasim, Tisco at current levels, Reliance at lower levels of around Rs.300-325. If you want to be adventurous buy Mukta at 145. Or UB at 100. The stories here are good.
[05:17:57 PM] => NS: Or Sterlite Optical at 400 levels.Monsanto is interesting at these levels. I like Cipla at around Rs.1000 levels. I would look at Wipro etc. once they have corrected a lot more. Remember it has moved up nearly 100% from its recent low. I think Nestle, Smithkline Consumer, Marico, Pfizer, ITC look solid at these prices.
[05:18:39 PM] => Jajoo: in your opinion is the market , operators and MF\'s ignoring good scrips. Is it that the FII's are the only ones who have any vision at all
[05:19:04 PM] => NS: No. They have the money. The locals have seen their dream budget just disappear overnight. And its not that equity prices have fallen. The amount of fraud that stockbrokers have done is really unimaginable. I was personally shocked to hear the kind of names & brokers with good reputation that are involved.
[05:19:45 PM] => Sunita_Rao : The Nasdaq looks weak , the US Economy is not likely to see any revival till late December 2001 - Jan 2002. Given this scenario will we see a break away from being NASDAQ dependent ?
[05:20:12 PM] => NS: Remember the rally in tech we had last month was because of the NASDAQ. Some of the old economy stocks will detach themselves. But the software, media companies will continue to remain NASDAQ dependent. Lets not fool ourselves here.
[05:22:21 PM] => Myiris : Hold on friends, Mr Shah is on a call
[05:23:17 PM] => Myiris: Sorry again, Mr Nimis Sheth is on a call
[05:24:25 PM] => Sajeevan_kg: Is now the right time to invest?
[05:24:52 PM] => NS: Yes and No. Is the money yours or borrowed. If it is your own use the market corrections to buy good values. Tata Power, ACC, Grasim, PSUs like Gail, Bharat electronics. Some of these are value/growth - so your investments should unlock their value a few quarters later.
[05:25:17 PM] => NS: There is too much uncertainty a few months away. So do leave some cash to invest then.
[05:25:38 PM] => Hvidya: Is Jupiter Bios a good buy?
[05:26:05 PM] => NS: I am not sure. They have posted great numbers. But I have not met them, but those who have say good things about them. However, don�t get carried away by Biotech. You can still participate by buying Monsanto, Cipla or Dr.Reddy. Jupiter is a long shot and we have to get to know more about their sales i.e. who they sell to etc.
[05:26:26 PM] => Sureshsur: hello good eve where could the market move with the weak closing today?
[05:26:50 PM] => NS: Not sure, perhaps a 150-200 point fall cannot be ruled out. We could see some fund based buying at lower levels. Funds have sold at higher levels eg Satyam, Digital, Infosys, HCL Tech etc, etc,, so a 10%-20% fall in these stocks will entice them to start buying again.
[05:27:30 PM] => Suresh kumar: with the recent amendment in write off of the bad debts which bank will affect more?
[05:28:20 PM] => NS: Avoid the older banks. NPAs there will be 20% or more. They won�t officially admit it but why take chances. IDBI bank or UTI are better bets. And then you have two of the best HDFC Bank & ICICI Bank. Stay focused.
[05:28:54 PM] => NS: SBI is a different case if the government allows a dilution of RBI�s stake to 33%. That is a story to watch out for.
[05:31:16 PM] => Suresh Kumar Iyer: what is your latest purchase and what is the target?
[05:31:46 PM] => NS: We have bought Tata Power & ACC recently for our clients. Target prices are Rs.200-225 for both � with a twelve month (2002 results) timeframe. Also Grasim at Rs.300 levels. Target Rs,450 in a year.
[05:32:13 PM] => NS: ITC looks attractive at sub-700 levels. It is correcting at that price we will invest despite a poor June �01 quarter. Target Rs.900-950. Again in a year.
[05:32:45 PM] => Surya iyer: for next settlement what is the fate of Digital, Wipro and Hind Lever?
[05:33:18 PM] => NS: I cannot say, but Digital & Wipro has seen some good selling last week. Could see lower levels there. Lever, I think attracts investment at Rs180 levels. So if it gets there, some funds could start buying again. Remember the Lever AGM is round the corner.
[05:33:58 PM] => Suresh: What do you think about tech analysis? Where can I learn the aspects the of the tech analysis officially in India
[05:34:26 PM] => NS: Some people believe in that. I have never really indulged in that though I enjoy talking about it with friend who do follow it. I guess it helps in timing a purchase of sale.
[05:34:39 PM] => If you live in Mumbai, the BSE runs regular training sessions on the subject. Contact the BSE Training Institute.
[05:38:18 PM] => Suresh: for company data base which is the best source?
[05:38:39 PM] => NS: Get access to the net and use www.myiris.com, www.moneycontrol.com, www.indiainfoline.com etc.
[05:38:56 PM] => You should get the bulk of your basic information from these sites.But if you need the raw data to run queries, then you need to invest in Capital Market�s database or some other such database. Your broker should anyway have one.
[05:39:17 PM] => Rajesh Khurana: Should I hold on to HLL, Novartis and Colgate?
[05:39:49 PM] => NS: Sell Novartis. I think the risk is too high with their every intention to promote new activities through a 100% subsidiary. They were a great company.
[05:40:09 PM] => NS: HLL I would still wait a quarter or two. A great proactive management. Give them a chance to restructure during these slow times.
[05:41:06 PM] => Colgate is interesting. Hold on. They could do Rs.65 crores PAT for YE March 2001 (divided Rs.3.5 or Rs. 4 expected) and Rs.85 crores for March 2003 � which is a 30% growth. It will now start attract fund based buying at levels below Rs. 170.
[05:41:24 PM] => Manish Turakhia: Should I sell GRASIM?
[05:42:09 PM] => NS: No. Manish. Hold on. They could very well do a 50% bottomline growth this year. So it�s at a 8.5 trailing P/E and a 6 forward P/E. Why sell a winner at such low valuations.
[05:42:24 PM] => NS: Enjoy the Rs.,8 dividend, Besides I do not rule out a bonus/split from Grasim this year.
[05:42:44 PM] => Ayush: I have 100 DSQ at 2300 levels. Should i buy 100 more at these levels to equalise my costs.
[05:43:22 PM] => Ayush: I have 100 DSQ at 2300 levels. Should I buy 100 more at these levels to equalise my costs.
[05:43:54 PM] => NS: Kindly do not average, treat yourself to a good holiday
[05:47:01 PM] => Ganeshr: How are the promoter and management of the companies as Jupiter organic and Vikas WSP and real growth of the companies.
[05:47:48 PM] => NS: Avoid Vikas. I hear good things about Jupiter but I still have to investigate. The numbers are good. But are they for real. I need to find out.
[05:49:21 PM] => Snagar : Should India Shaving be bought at the current rate. What is the price expectation after a year?
[05:50:07 PM] => NS: Not really. The only upside I see is in an open offer where the parent takes the company private (delisting). That could happen at Rs.600 levels. But otherwise I think they have really screwed Indian Shareholders in the merger with Duracell & Wilkinson.
[05:51:44 PM] => Bhandari: At what price level / percentage to place a stop-loss for a stock which I hold for medium/long term. Please guide me.
[05:52:33 PM] => NS: It depends on when you bought it. 6000 index or 3100 index. And what stock? I really cannot generalize here.
[05:53:07 PM] => Manish : What would you value Air India at if it were to be divested?
[05:53:41 PM] => NS: Gosh. 20 planes and 15000 employees who cannot be sacked.
[05:54:16 PM] => Swissair has 200 planes and 8000 employees.
[05:54:26 PM] => Rs.1.00 might be a safe bet.
[05:55:01 PM] => Air India�s disinvestment is an event. If it happens it means that the government has a change in mindset. Nothing else.
[05:56:50 PM] => Harisb: What is the prospect of Zee Telefilms in the short term. Is Subhash Chandra playing a proping up game. Your View on its latest results.
[05:57:25 PM] => NS: Zee is a great story because of the size and the trend towards pay channels. This will take time. The management integrity will always be an issue here.
[05:57:49 PM] => The consolidated result of Rs.189 crores implies an EPS of around Rs4.6 or a p/e of 28. Remember, zee has never been an earnings story as yet. An event story. And SC is a master at that.
[05:58:00 PM] => The latest ruse of finding a foreign partner could prop the stock up but I don�t think that he can find a partner on his terms so easily.
[05:58:35 PM] => It might be like the PSU disinvestments story. Anytime now � I have waited 10 years and it still hasn�t happened.
[05:59:08 PM] => Subodh : What are the steps in your opinion to be taken by the govt. and various Institutional bodies like RBI, CII FICCI etc. which will lead to the growth days of 1990 - 1993
[05:59:37 PM] => NA: The govt. needs to stop reckless expenditure. It needs to stop pouring money borrowed at 10%-12% into 2% returns (PSUs). So we need the disinvestments process & it�s momentum to start.
[06:00:23 PM] => They need to throw open the floodgates of investment. Every sector should be opened up. I firmly believe that they should allow 100% ownership with no restriction on listing in local bourses. Huge FDI is what India needs. And even before the first major investment (Enron) in India could see Phase II, the bickering has started. These are not the correct signals being sent to potential foreign (FDI) investors.
[06:00:49 PM] => And allow through select Indian Mutual Funds the Indian public to invest in foreign equities (through these funds).
[06:04:15 PM] => Myiris: We are overwhelmed with the response, Mr Sheth will be taking the last five questions for the day.
[06:06:05 PM] => Myiris: kindly hang on friends, Mr Sheth is on an important call
[06:07:44 PM] => Rsingh : Your comments on Silverline and Pentamedia graphics. Are they worth a buy especially Pentamedia - given the digitalisation of both HOLLYWOOD AND BOLLYWOOD
[06:08:04 PM] => NS: Avoid both like the Surat Plague.
[06:08:43 PM] => NS: Your attraction to Hollywood & Bollywood means that Mukta & Balaji Tele are better bets for you. Even Saregama or Tips (at Rs.70 levels).
[06:08:53 PM] => But the perception of the management in the whole sector is very very poor. They have to prove themselves (integrity) and that takes time.
[06:09:06 PM] => Cdsouza: Tell me about the future prospects hotel industry after the current hike in FDI limit by the Govt.
[06:09:27 PM] => NS: The hotel industry has good prospects. And this will continue for years to come.
[06:09:47 PM] => A year ago when perception was very poor (about performance) one had a good opportunity to buy into EIH and Indian Hotels at great valuations.
[06:09:56 PM] => EIH is at a 15 p/e multiple now. Both can still be bought.
[06:11:48 PM] => Pawan_Gupta: What is the current Risk Reward ratio of the market now.
[06:12:19 PM] => NS: I think that the upside potential has a long way to be realized (time wise). A 4500-5000 index cannot be ruled out later in the year. But first the pain. And that could take the index to 3100-3200 levels. That�s a level to start the hunt for good stocks.
[06:12:29 PM] => Renuk: How you rate Hughes Tele.com in the long term considering its parent�s strength and sound business model ? It is good long-term buy.
[06:12:44 PM] => NS: It will take eons to make profits. I would wait for a Rs 5-6 level before discussing it.
[06:13:16 PM] => But yes, we use their services in our office & I can tell you that their approach beats that of MTNL hollow. But it will take them a long time to build the network (and hopefully profits).
[06:14:28 PM] => Mohitag: What is the future of Derivatives in our market ?
[06:14:48 PM] => NS: Absolutely great. But give it time to develop.
[06:15:17 PM] => Rajahatwar: Sir, I have 1000 @300 Satyam shares. Should I continue holding or should I sell?
[06:15:38 PM] => NS: Is this an investment? Then hold till the June results.
[06:15:58 PM] => Else keep a Rs.180 stop. Valuations are good. But if the Nasdaq starts heading further south our tech stock will follow in tandem.
[06:20:18 PM] => Anil: do you know of any Indian bio tech co worth focusing on
[06:20:38 PM] => NS: Cipla & Dr. Reddy. Do some groundwork on Jupiter Bio. However, I have not done proper homework on that one yet.
[06:22:48 PM] => Rajesh: Is share market more of a gamble?
[06:23:01 PM] => NS: Not if you have clearly defined your objective for participating in it. Yes one can gamble. But a sensible guy will use the gyrations in sentiment to buy/sell i.e. use panics to buy and good markets to sell.
[06:23:12 PM] => Besides the ONLY ONLY way to make money is by proper untiring Discipline.
[06:23:30 PM] => Anil: what sort of a methodology do u use while investing?
[06:23:47 PM] => NS: Companies that generate free cash flows or have the potential to do that. Free cash flows means higher & higher dividend payouts.
[06:23:56 PM] => ROCE and RONW should be high or businesses that can get there. A 40%+ ROCE and a 30% RONW are great benchmarks.
[06:24:42 PM] => Samuel: What do you think of Cummins India? They are releasing their results in a few days. Buy/Sell/Hold?
[06:25:04 PM] => NS: Cummins is talking good numbers over the next few years � primarily export led. I would sell around Rs.65 or higher levels and buy at Rs.50 or lower.
[06:25:20 PM] => Jajoo: Views on the Petro chemical Sector especially Reliance?
[06:25:48 PM] => NS: Oil prices are rising again. So that�s not good for the sector. But Reliance is now more an event story. Buybacks, Inflows from RPL disinvestments, Telecom. They should do Rs.3500 crores of PAT for the year (excluding money from RPL etc.). Rs300-325 is a level to enter. I expect the stock to get to Rs.500 in a year.
[06:28:12 PM] => Suresh : Which sec will attract more FDI in coming years and there by attract better discounting in bourses
[06:29:08 PM] => NS: Infrastructure, Infrastructure Management & Services. (But the Enron fiasco could delay this) & PSU disinvestments. If whole companies are sold.
[06:29:19 PM] => Rkhurana65: How do you predict the trend for the forthcoming sesssion?
[06:29:35 PM] => NS: A weak opening. Lets see if the FII selling continues � which they have for the past few days.
[06:29:50 PM] => Anildhanani: Vikas wsp figures r bogus?
[06:30:11 PM] => NS: Definitely an element of financial jugglury.
[06:30:26 PM] => Samir_Rachh : Hi How are U?
[06:30:48 PM] => NS: Great Samir. And you?
[06:33:05 PM] => Myiris: Dear friends, Mr Sheth will answer few more questions before we close the session
[06:36:16 PM] => Chandru_in: Best fixed investment options
[06:36:47 PM] => NS: RBI bonds & 100% debt funds (but what is your time frame). You need to match that with that of the debt fund � else u could see a capital depreciation if interest rates drop further. Buy long bond debt funds.
[06:37:07 PM] => Manishturakhia: Do you see Pak leader�s visit to INDIA to have any impact on our stocks? Do you see even partial success of the bilateral relations reducing profits of stocks like Bharat Electronics? Any other stock with direct benefit?
[06:37:23 PM] => NS: Not really. Unless we gift him a part of Kashmir � which is a political suicide for our govt.
[06:37:45 PM] => BEL � no. Defence spending has only one way to go and that is UP. If trade opens up. Sugar & Tea (basic consumption commodities) could benefit.
[06:38:02 PM] => Gopal Saraf: What is the story in Tata Telecom. Is it worth buying? Is Jupiter organics a good biotech pick? Is there any worthwhile biotech stock? What do you think of Cadila pharma? Is it worth a buy?
[06:40:15 PM] => NS: Avaya is a leader in call centers. This call center business will explode in the years to come. So the business prospects are good. Meanwhile this is fringe business for the Tata�s and it makes a lot of sense to just sell the company. That caps the downside.
[06:40:40 PM] => Mkl1977 : Where is the sensex headed from here? Which sites can I go for online trading?
[06:41:06 PM] => NS: Maybe 3200-3300 levels. I can�t say. Online trading. Find a solid brick-and-mortar broker.
[06:42:29 PM] => Myiris: Thank you Mr Nimis Sheth for a very lively and informative session.
[06:43:54 PM] => NS: Thank you very much, one last message, "Invest on panic days and dont borrow to do that"
[06:46:15 PM] => Myiris: Thank you all the participants, dont forget to join us for another chat session with Mr Krishnamurthy Vijayan, CEO, J.M. Capital Management Pvt. Ltd. on Tuesday, June 5, 2001
[06:47:03 PM] => Thank You and Bye for now