[05:35:00 PM] => Mr. Gul Teckchandani, CIO, Sun FC has
joined us for the chat.
[05:35:54 PM] => Samdash: By when
do you believe investors in emerging tech fund would
alteast get zero return?
[05:36:58 PM] => Teckchandani: The current prices of Tech
shares are down to about 5% of their peak prices in Feb. 2000.
5% normally would mean that the market is saying that the
software business has defaulted. This is not correct. If you
think that the software industry is going to go bust then
you might as well write the obituary of this country. In terms
of when are we going to get to par value given our NAV logically
this should take about 24 months assuming the Industry growth
rate of 30-40%. But if you think that you can predict prices
absolutely to the 'T' that would be over confidence.
[05:37:29 PM] => Parag Parikh: In
the value fund, you have halved your exposure to
Infosys. What is the reason?
[05:38:01 PM] => Infosys was an over owned stock and we
expected the prices to correct because of the sentiment prevailing
for the tech sector. However now since the price has come
off we may go back to our original weight.
[05:43:15 PM] => Vidya: Why have
you not disclosed the portfolio of resurgent India
fund?
[05:43:48 PM] => GT: That goes out only to our customers
since this is not a routine fund, the entry level being a
minimum of Rs. 1 Lac. Its a 'patience Fund� and not for comparing
with the Index on an ongoing basis.
[05:44:17 PM] => Kamlesh: How do
you justify your investments in BSES, GAIL, and GTB in your
emerging technology fund?
[05:44:50 PM] => GT: BSES is already into telecom and
ISP. GAIL is setting up the fibre optic network and GTB is
the only Pvt. Sector bank available at the current cheap valuations
and will be using the Internet and e-commerce like ICICI and
HDFC bank.
[05:45:54 PM] => bindurao: Every
FM in the country was saying that the markets will
continue to boom. & then the crash happened! Millions
of investors have lost money
with funds languishing below par value today. Now when a FM
says the markets will rise, why
should an investor believe him?
[05:46:57 PM] => GT: Fund Managers or Finance Ministers
are unlikely to be able to predict the prices of stocks. What
is possible is to understand businesses and their potential
on a longer-term basis. However, there is no gain saying that
when prices come down everybody fears the worst. Not very
many people are talking of fundamentals today. If you think
independently nothing has dramatically changed versus Feb
2000- EXCEPT prices. Tops and bottoms of the market are not
known but are a matter of probability. This is the time to
invest since the risk is lower. Obviously the FM has not given
you the time frame but when the Index has come down from 6150
to 3500 the risk is only half and if the slide was to continue
at the same pace you shall get all Indian Stocks free in the
next two months. That to my mind again is not going to happen.
[05:47:31 PM] => Vijay Kannan :
Your balanced fund is very volatile in it�s returns.
Why is it so?
[05:48:06 PM] => GT: Balanced Fund has a tech weightage
of 15-16% - added to that there is about 59% equity exposure.
With equity being volatile over the last twelve months and
only moving southwards has resulted in the balanced fund going
down.
[05:51:49 PM] => Priyanka: Do you
get hate mail from investors whose NAVs have crashed?
[05:52:44 PM] => GT: Does the question really CRY for
an answer? Obviously nobody likes loosing money and our jobs
are like the secretary of a co-operative society- thankless.
When the markets are going up investors want maximum return
and when the markets are falling no loss!!! But I look at
it philosophically and try and understand the anguish and
do whatever necessary to handhold the investor.
[05:53:23 PM] => Vinju: Do you think
`Alstom Power` can become another `Tata Power`
soon?
[05:53:49 PM] => GT: Two different businesses. Alstom
Power makes Equipment whereas TATA Power is actually a transmission
and generation Company of the end product - electricity.
[05:54:27 PM] => Vivek: Where do
you see the tech sector headed for this year
[05:55:55 PM] => GT: End of this year positive returns
shall come from the tech sector and the prices are lucrative
today.
[05:56:26 PM] => Kiran: What do
you think would be the impact of the ban on badla?
[05:56:59 PM] => GT: Liquidity will be impacted and the
transition should be seamless and no time gap between the
banning of badla and the introduction of options.
[05:58:00 PM] => Varghese : Can
you suggest some scrips good for long term gains?
In comparison Global Telesys is better than HFCL?
[05:58:32 PM] => GT: No Comments due to compliance issues.
[05:59:02 PM] => Rakesh: How are
futures and options a better alternative to badla?
[05:59:38 PM] => GT: In a developed futures and options
market the cash market moves on the basis of the futures and
option market. Further with Options u can manage and hedge
your risk
[06:06:27 PM] => Harry: Swimming
Against the Tide - A Zero Sum Game? Please comment.
[06:06:46 PM] => GT: You gotta be a good swimmer but however
in the equity markets please remember you are always alone
. Just be independent. There is no point in trying to predict
prices � predict the business fundamentals.
[06:07:25 PM] => Varghese: I bought
500 shares of Nalco on expectation of company will show highest
ever net this quarter. But company�s result disappointed me.
Shall I hold these shares?
[06:07:38 PM] => GT: No Comments due to compliance issues.
[06:09:05 PM] => Ketan Parekh: I
want to invest in mutual funds to get rid of Tax.
I also would like to invest in schemes which gives me good
return? Can you suggest any specific
scheme?
[06:09:19 PM] => GT: Go for diversified schemes of any
Fund House.
[06:10:02 PM] => Harish Kadam :
Dear Mr. Gul you have been an old hand in the market place
. In your opinion should fund manager/fund houses charge management
fees only if they perform i.e.
relative to benchmark indices. What I�m asking is that only
if you beat or are equal to the sensex on a bull market or
have fallen less than any indice in a bear market should a
fund house be paid its fees - your comments
[06:10:15 PM] => GT: No Comments
[06:10:44 PM] => Prashant: Would
you ask an investor to average out his holdings? Do you actually
believe in averaging out or is it just a mathematical phenomenon?
[06:11:12 PM] => GT: If you understand the fundamentals
and are patient with your investments please average since
that is an opportunity. Look at it this way that what you
liked at higher prices why shouldn�t you when it is cheaper.
[06:11:44 PM] => Rajesh: Forget
a zero sum game. All equity funds have played negative sum
games with the investor. Do you see the investors ever recovering
their money if they invested last year. If yes given what
time frame?
[06:12:09 PM] => GT: Answered above- 24 months for returns
[06:12:34 PM] => Gary Rakesh: what
do you say about Satyam?
[06:12:46 PM] => GT: No Comments due to compliance issues.
[06:13:07 PM] => RKSingh: Why is
it that the statement of Azim Premji that Wipro is
going to be $5bn company by 2003-04 failed to enthuse the
market.
[06:13:31 PM] => GT: No Comments due to compliance issues.
I also read the same comments and I hope that he sticks to
what he says.
[06:17:48 PM] => Janki: All Fund
houses launched Sector and other types of Equity funds last
year when the markets were good. Now that the tech bubble
has burst and huge losses the same fund houses are promoting
debt. Aren't you as fund managers responsible in a way for
the euphoria created last year? Secondly It�s very nice to
hear statements like revenue models, management vision etc.
Where was all that when these funds or money moved to such
asset class. Is it always the case of shutting the gates after
the horse has bolted - Are not you as fund houses expected
to be more aware and more mature?
[06:19:00 PM] => GT: It is difficult for a fund manager
to time the markets. Prices do keep fluctuating but the underlying
businesses if strong then the stock prices do come back. There
is pain when the prices come down. This irritation obviously
results in questioning the markets and fund houses. Having
said that, equities over longer terms as documented by RBI
has given the best return as compared to any other asset class.
It is not that we are not pained by the volatility and down
draft in the markets but 2001 worldwide has not treated investors
well particularly equity investors. I can only say that we
have not invested in only dot com in the Indian domain because
in my limited manner I was in lighter vein telling dot com
companies that in India there is a problem of Commerce` itself
why talk of e-commerce.
[06:19:17 PM] => Balshekar: What
in your opinion would you take to be the cost of
investing?
[06:19:46 PM] => GT: I do not understand the question.
In equity plain comparisons with alternate bank deposit returns
will satisfy you at points in time. Let us assume that if
not invested in Equity in 99-2000 you would have been pained
for not having invested in equity. But now Equity has become
a dirty word.
[06:20:22 PM] => Rashesh : Your
view on rolling settlements-- don`t you think that the individual
investor/speculator has lost his level playing field with
that of the FII / MF if Future and Options make its way in
the markets over the next two months?
[06:20:46 PM] => GT: These are but technical situations,
which should be lookedat as opportunity and if the transition
is seamless the above (already answered) holds.
[06:21:05 PM] => Srini: Many funds
had invested in dotcoms at high valuations. In their recent
portfolios most of them have halved the value. Do you believe
it is right for fund managers to invest in unlisted stocks?
How do you value unlisted securities?
[06:21:38 PM] => GT: Pre-IPO case, unlisted is alright.
But dot coms, one will have to see whether it is profitable
because as investors we should only buy profits.
[06:27:36 PM] => Avinash: Your views
on our economy? How and where do you see a 6%
growth?
[06:28:01 PM] => GT: In basic core industries and in software.
In relation to GDP, CMIE numbers corroborate a 6% growth rate
but in the Indian context do not try and do a top down approach
on the Stock Markets. Look at the Companies individually and
this is because the overall data points are not reliable.
[06:28:16 PM] => Anandk: If I wish
to invest in mutual funds, what kind of schemes
to do suggest I invest in?
[06:28:27 PM] => GT: Answered above
[06:29:24 PM] => Harish: Earlier
the stocks were overvalued (tech stocks). Yet all fund houses
had them in their portfolio and never exited out of such stocks,
now they are undervalued but all portfolios have crossed their
threshold limits of 10% on stocks such as Infosys, Satyam,
Wipro, Digital etc- given the scenario would it not have been
prudent to sit on cash rather than stick your INVESTORS NECK
OUT?
[06:29:42 PM] => GT: Hindsight vision is always 20-20
because if you knew that the top was 6000 then you are near
to GOD. Most of us will be unable to predict the tops and
bottoms and P/E ratios are the only ones that keep changing
not businesses. Therefore it is better to not chase momentum
and if the price has come down WAIT unless you are convinced
that the business also is worsening.
[06:30:36 PM] => Jajoo: Is better
fund management a privy to the so called `club class`. The
Sun resurgent India Fund has lost a mere 5% compared to a
30% fall in the Sensex. (From the date your scheme quoted
its NAV). Compare that to 30% plus falls in your Balanced,
Tech and value funds. - What should the small investor says
to you - `Hamara Khoon Pani hai or club class ka khoon khoon
hai`- Kindly elaborate on this preferential treatment.
[06:31:33 PM] => GT: I wish I had the privilege that I
know more than somebodyelse. Let me only say that after 21
years in the market, the day you feel that you are privileged,
that will be the day you are ready to go home. You have seen
several big guns being humbled by the markets and also the
market do not distinguish in its treatment to a fund manager
than to an investor.
[06:32:17 PM] => Vishalk: Let me
congratulate you on the good performance of your income scheme
during the turbulent times of June 2000 - September 2000 when
you hardly got affected vis-a-vis other schemes where I had
put my money. But at the end of the year I got a net return
of 10% only from you when compared to a 12-13% returns elsewhere.
- Did you miss the boat while swimming against the tide?
[06:32:45 PM] => GT: No we in our debt schemes try and
protect capital. Safety, liquidity and then return. In that
order is our philosophy. In my opinion and factually we gave
last year 1.2% lower returns when compared to a few funds.
However that was in the interest of being conservative to
protect capital and not take aggressive risks to give you
that extra 1-%.
[06:38:04 PM] => Deepak: I have
invested in your SUN MIP fund but over the last year I just
got a mere 7% return. Would not have I got a better return
by investing in an absolute liquid fund. Were you sitting
on cash?
[06:38:37 PM] => GT: No. We were in Equity to the extent
of 5% that resulted in a little lower return. However we are
today into DEBT only.
[06:38:58 PM] => Haresh: Is the
repurchase price of UTI US 64 its true value. If Yes
would you recommend it as the best investment in this falling
market.
[06:39:18 PM] => GT: No Comments.
[06:39:44 PM] => Krishanan: Recently
the Finance Minister had indicated that the Rupee is overvalued
vis a vis its counterparts in the Asian region. What is your
take on the exchange rate for the next one-year?
[06:39:56 PM] => GT: A 5-8% depreciation annually.
[06:40:14 PM] => Nathan: Is it worth
holding Cyberspace Infosys and how is the Company�s status
now?
[06:40:26 PM] => GT: No Comments
[06:40:48 PM] => Navin Batra: I
am a professional and like straightforward answers , do we
see some value buying in Software stocks in next 3-6 Months
?
[06:41:19 PM] => GT: Absolutely - the whole market is
cheap and you are getting New Economy stocks at less than
old economy prices.
[06:41:39 PM] => Aro: Is this the
right time for a dot com to enter share market?
[06:41:54 PM] => GT: No public issues will be absorbed
in this market.
[06:43:27 PM] => B Sridhar: what
is going to happen when market is behaving so volatile? What
happened to the investor of growth funds, whether the investor
in the growth funds can switch their investments to income
schemes, then wait until the market has to pick up, then do
vice versa. What happen when all over the world there is lot
of software people are coming out, whether the impact will
be for Indian companies and the IT companies having any potential
for future growth.
[06:43:54 PM] => GT: Old saying by low sell high. But
routinely most people buy high and sell low because euphoria�s
result in creating missed out feeling which sucks in even
the disciplined. But these are the very same questions asked
in every meltdown.
[06:45:22 PM] => Ayush: Do you think
that Fund Managers should be more accountable and some legal
action should be taken against them if they goof up? As in
all professions e.g. doctor and lawyers, if they make a mistake
then there is a possibility of some legal action. Do you think
fund managers should be accountable to the public and should
only be paid if they have some positive returns?
[06:46:01 PM] => GT: Fund managers invest in businesses
and as long as the business is growing/doing well in which
investments have been made there is no guarantee on stock
prices because prices on a short-term basis are also a result
of technical factors and also sentiment. I do not think that
legal action can get us the prices or the Markets roaring.
In every equity market worldwide fluctuations always happen
and effectively what you are saying that the market should
head northwards in perpetuity to avoid legal hassles.
[06:46:16 PM] => Chetan: With all
your experience how come your fund performance is
so poor?
[06:46:36 PM] => GT: A function of the markets and relative
terms the schemes have performed better than their benchmark
indices.
[06:49:01 PM] => Deva: In the short
term in the Tech Sector, which is the best Strategy- Technicals
or Fundamentals?
[06:49:28 PM] => GT: Whatever makes money for you is the
best strategy.
[06:56:15 PM] => Deepak: I have
invested in your SUN MIP fund but over the last year I just
got a mere 7% return. Would not have I got a better return
by investing in an absolute liquid fund. Were you sitting
on cash ?
[06:56:57 PM] => GT :No we were in Equity to the extent
of 5%, which resulted in a little lower return. However we
are today into DEBT only.
[06:57:17 PM] => Haresh: Is the
repurchase price of UTI US 64 its true value. If Yes would
you recommend it as the best investment in this falling market
[06:57:37 PM] => GT:NO Comments
[06:58:09 PM] => Krishanan: Recently
the Finance Minister had indicated that the Rupee is overvalued
vis a vis its counterparts in the Asian region. What is your
take on the exchange rate for the next one-year?
[06:58:42 PM] => GT:A 5-8% depreciation annually.
[06:59:22 PM] => Nathan : Is it
worth holding Cyberspace Infosys and how is the company's
status now?
[06:59:41 PM] => GT: No Comments
[06:59:58 PM] => Navin Batra: I
am professional and like straightforward answers , do we see
some value buying in Software stocks in next 3-6 Months ?
[07:00:20 PM] => GT: Absolutely � the whole market is
cheap and you are getting New Economy stocks at less than
old economy prices.
[07:01:40 PM] => Aradhana: What
is the future of liquid funds in the short run.
[07:02:04 PM] => GT:The same as the business in the past.
[07:02:29 PM] => Julie: Firstly
could you kindly define the meaning of a Stock Future and
a Stock option (I happen to have an idea but yet). Secondly
given that our Institutions have worked in less informative
/transparent markets when compared to the FII's
[07:02:56 PM] => GT:Option is insurance and the Future
is like buying but no physical settlement is done and only
cash is transacted. Indian Brokers have been aware of options
/ future since ages. The nomenclature used in India informally
was �Phatak�. The FII�s necessarily understand it better compared
to the retail investor and hence it will help them in mathematically
arriving at option prices quickly. This is a detailed subject
and you are welcome to drop us a line or come in person to
discuss the same.
[07:03:54 PM] => Srini: I have invested
50000 in Sun F&C emerging fun @ of Rs 10 and
today it lingers at about Rs 3. what are you going to do about
it? I hope you can redress my situation in some way.
[07:04:24 PM] => GT: The businesses in the tech sector
in which we have invested are continuing to grow. We expect
that not only will there be returns, but over a period of
time one can expect good returns. However, the current meltdown
worldwide in the tech space has mauled all the equity investors.
So I feel if you have averaged or atleast just stop looking
at the price for sometime, returns will happen.
[07:05:11 PM] => Dev: Why do you
have `No Comments for most of the questions?
[07:05:26 PM] => GT: Compliance issues. I am not allowed
to comment on individual companies.
[07:05:43 PM] => jm: What are your
views about BioTech Co and which according to you are worth
focusing on.
[07:05:56 PM] => GT: Not enough listed companies.
[07:06:12 PM] => Bhatia: where do
you see the media entertainment companies headed to?
[07:06:36 PM] => GT: If you can understand the internal
controls of these companies, the business potential is good.
[07:07:34 PM] => Bhatia: What is
your outlook on the markets for the next 6 months?
[07:07:54 PM] => GT: Positive.
[07:09:54 PM] => GT: Thank you for participating in this
chat. I am sorry that I was unable to answer all the questions.
However, you can get in touch with me for any clarifications.
[07:11:36 PM] => myiris.com: Thank
you all for your participation in the chat at myiris.com.
Dont forget to send in your questions to Mr. John Band, CEO,
Ask Raymond James for the chat
on Friday, 4th may 2001 at 4:30 am.
[07:15:33 PM] => myiris.com: Please
log on to myiris every Monday for a Fund Manager
chat and every Friday for an expert chat.
Disclaimer
The views expressed
by Mr. Gul Teckchandani in this programme are that of his
own and not necessarily that of Sun F & C AMC (India)
Pvt. Ltd., Sun F & C Mutual Fund or that of Foreign &
Colonial Emerging Markets Ltd. U.K.
All investments in
mutual funds and securities are subject to market risks and
the NAV of the schemes may go up or down depending upon the
factors and forces affecting the securities Market.
The views thus expressed
by Mr. Gul Teckchandani in this programme are in no way that
of IRIS Ltd. IRIS shall not be held responsible in any manner
for any action / inaction on the part of the participant /
viewer of this chat programme..
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