[04:29:43 PM] => Myiris : Welcome to the live chat session, our guest today, Mr. Ranjan Dhawan will be joining us shortly...
[04:30:53 PM] => Myiris: Mr Ranjan Dhawan is the Managing Director, PNB Asset Management Company Limited

[04:31:11 PM] => DISCLAIMER:
[04:32:03 PM] => Mr. Ranjan Dhawan, Managing Director - PNB Asset Management Co. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Dhawan may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time. The views expressed by Mr. Dhawan is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Dhawan, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[04:32:20 PM] => None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:32:43 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Dhawan have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.

[04:33:33 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the Chat session on myiris.com, Mr. Dhawan.

[04:34:46 PM] => Ranjan Dhawan: Thank you for inviting me...

[04:35:08 PM] => Harini: what is an ideal equity fund in this market in your opinion? How can investors identify good performing equity funds?
[04:35:52 PM] => RD: A good equity fund in this market would be either an index fund or a balanced fund. The rating of funds is usually done by rating agencies such as value research. Every Monday Business Standard carries ratings of various mutual funds in different categories.

[04:36:39 PM] => Pradeep: How do you benchmark PNB�s performance compared to other funds?
[04:37:13 PM] => RD: PNB at present has only two open ended funds namely PNB debt fund and PNB balanced growth fund. PNB debt fund has been rated no. 1 with a return of above 21 percent over a one year horizon and a return of around ...
[04:37:32 PM] => �17.5 percent since inception by Value Research. This is therefore the best performing debt fund in terms of returns. The returns in the balanced growth fund are average for the returns for that segment.

[04:38:45 PM] => Manohar: What would be an ideal asset allocation for an investor?
[04:39:48 PM] => RD: for a risk averse tax paying investor the ideal asset allocation would be 1) 50 percent of funds in 8.50 percent RBI bonds. 2) 25 percent in bank fixed deposits. 3) 25 percent in gilt funds.
[04:40:20 PM] => ...Depending upon the risk preference, in my view this is a good time to shift to equity funds also but in small amounts as the recovery of the market would be gradual and dependent upon the world political/economic situation. However for the time being we believe that it is better to be in cash.

[04:40:39 PM] => Swati: What do you think for the market in a one month horizon?
[04:41:11 PM] => RD: Over a period of one month the equity markets are likely to be volatile and in the debt markets I expect yields to soften.

[04:41:46 PM] => Soumya G: Given the current interest rate scenario isn�t it better to invest in PPF than in a gilt or income fund?
[04:42:13 PM] => RD: In the current interest rate scenario I feel that a gilt fund is better than PPF.

[04:42:37 PM] => NG: As a first time investor is it the right time to enter the markets? I would like your advice.
[04:44:21 PM] => RD: The markets are likely to be volatile but currently one could invest around 20 percent of ones budget in the current market.

[04:44:53 PM] => Narendranath: As the head of a mutual fund, could you please tell me about what you look at before making an investment?
[04:46:01 PM] => RD: when you make an investment in the equity market you look for three things: 1) the financial fundamentals of the company. 2) the business prospects of the company and 3) the timing of entry, i.e., don�t enter the company at the time of a bull run...
[04:46:19 PM] => ...In my opinion it is better not to enter the market directly but go to a mutual fund.

[04:46:49 PM] => Abhijeet: Where do you see the media entertainment companies headed to?
[04:47:10 PM] => RD: PNB mutual fund has consistently avoided media entertainment companies. They are too volatile for our liking and their cash flows can never be predicted with even a reasonable degree of accuracy.

[04:48:08 PM] => Joes S: What is your outlook on the markets for the next six months?
[04:48:35 PM] => RD: I believe that the market in the next six months would not show any appreciable rise unless there was a resolution of the Afghanistan crisis.

[04:49:17 PM] => Karthik: What do you believe are the sectors to invest in at the moment?
[04:50:00 PM] => RD: Pharma, FMCG and cement appear to be good sectors to invest in.

[04:50:29 PM] => BR: your view on interest rates?
[04:50:48 PM] => RD: interest rates are likely to remain soft. However if oil prices go over $30 a barrel and the fiscal deficit also grows much beyond the intended target we could see a hardening of interest rates towards the end of the year.

[04:51:57 PM] => Sadasivam58: will PNB asset management company turn the corner in the near future? Will the parent bank take over or hand over charge to a private party?
[04:52:24 PM] => RD: PNB Asset Management Company has already turned the corner with a net profit for the half year ended September 2001 We are in the middle of a restructuring exercise at the moment.

[04:54:05 PM] => Vishalk: what according to you is the most optimistic scenario about the markets in today�s situation and mutual funds in particular? Is there any hope?
[04:54:32 PM] => RD: I feel the markets are not very far from the bottom and as far as mutual funds are concerned they have a good future. The avenues open for an average investor are very limited and the mutual fund industry will expand, prosper and become more professional like in Europe and North America.

[04:56:05 PM] => Pushkar: which are the sectors that you are bullish about and where are you bearish?
[04:56:25 PM] => RD:I am bullish on pharma and cement and if the public sector disinvestments comes through companies like BHEL, HPCL, etc. should be very good candidates for a run up.

[04:57:38 PM] => Mayur54: in a debt portfolio what are the things that the fund managers look at?
[04:58:06 PM] => RD: in a debt portfolio one should look at =>
1) the composition of different rated securities
2) the maturity profile of the securities
3) 1. the coupon rate of the securities since they determine current yield...
The study of the yield curve is essential when one takes decision to exit or enter. This is highly technical job A study of the overall economic scenario is also essential for the study of debt.

[05:01:34 PM] => Aananth87: I am a marine engineer and I hold 5000 shares of ICICI bought at Rs 150. Every broker I meet says to me that ICICI is the second best financial institution and soon will go to the levels of Rs 500. what is your opinion on it?
[05:04:04 PM] => RD: over the last two years the EPS of ICICI has been coming down. There are reports that in the current adverse economic circumstances the NPA level of ICICI will rise. I do not see a marked improvement in the results of ICICI in the near future.

[05:06:18 PM] => Trader90: do you feel that the cement cartel will be able to hold up the prices? What is your view on the cement stocks?
[05:06:50 PM] => RD: prices will be held up because considerable housing construction activity is going on plus infrastructure spending by the government is likely to pick up .I am positive on the leading cement counters.

[05:08:38 PM] => Trader90: should one look for trading opportunities at counters like satyam, infosys and zee or hold on to these scrips from a medium term perspective?
[05:10:17 PM] => RD: these stocks have exhibited huge volatility and in such circumstances trading calls are difficult. It is better to hold on.

[05:10:58 PM] => Cager: would index funds be a better bet than individual stocks at this point of time?
[05:11:28 PM] => RD: yes certainly...!!

[05:11:53 PM] => Amit Sinha: in the present market scenario where do you think an investor should put his money?
[05:12:11 PM] => RD: a tax paying investor at the moment should park some portion of his funds in 8.5% RBI tax free bonds . The balance can be slowly invested over 6 months period in mutual funds depending upon his risk preferences. Gilt funds if he is risk averse and pharma/equity funds for exposure to the equity market.

[05:15:40 PM] => Adouza: do you see a revival in the IPO market given the fact that the interest rates on saving instruments are low? Can we expect more telecom/PSU companies coming with attractive issues in the near future?
[05:16:14 PM] => RD: the IPO market is near collapse due to lack of investment interest. Globally also there is a slowdown with fears of recession. I do not think that the IPO market will revive in the near future.

[05:19:14 PM] => Flowerpower_flowerchild: how do you see the yields of government securities been moving.
[05:20:12 PM] => RD: they have moved up marginally and , they will go back to pre 11th September levels.

[05:21:46 PM] => Anil: Most of the equity fund has performed badly when the market tanked, then what is the meaning of the suggestion to the small investor to invest through mutual fund route, on an average, I lost more in equity mutual fund the through direct investing in equity market.
[05:22:41 PM] => RD: You must be a well-informed investor or just lucky. Normally people lose much less in mutual funds. It is important to correctly time both entry into equity mutual funds or equity markets.

[05:23:35 PM] => dinshu_1998: What do u think what will be the impact of war on mutulfunds?
[05:24:18 PM] => RD: It really depends upon the duration and extent of the war. This cannot be predicted right now. In general it is safer to be in gilt/debt funds.

[05:26:17 PM] => nalini_mathur: Which investment strategy do you prefer? Do you churn the portfolio constantly or buy and hold?
[05:26:36 PM] => RD: We churn the portfolio constantly.

[05:27:31 PM] => nagendar10: With so many mutual funds deviating from there stated investment objectives, can one trust them?
[05:29:02 PM] => RD:ah well.... complain to SEBI.

[05:31:27 PM] => Balu: is it wise to invest in indian pharma?
[05:31:59 PM] => RD: difficult question. the market is likely to show a correction in teh next few weeks. some portion of the investible funds could be invested in the leading companies you fancy In case they go down further because of global recession etc more can be purchased.

[05:33:54 PM] => Nalini: Do you think the Indian mutual funds industry has underperformed given the market conditions?
[05:34:41 PM] => RD: No most have out performed the bench mark indices. Barring sectoral funds like tech funds.

[05:36:47 PM] => Balu: is PSU scrips worth the re-look now?
[05:37:19 PM] => RD: they are at record lows but their run up .Will depend upon government disinvestment.

[05:39:01 PM] => Aryan: Where and How do you see demand growth pickups what sectors should lead the recovery from this recession - expected Time Frame?
[05:39:38 PM] => RD: The sector which has shown the most resilience in this downturn has been the pharma sector. I expect it to lead the recovery. As regards duration there is expected to be a US and Japanese recession for this and perhaps the next quarter. Hopefully after that things will pick up.

[05:40:31 PM] => murthy: Will the entry of pension funds benefit the debt market? How?
[05:41:05 PM] => RD: The major corpus of the pension funds will go in the debt market. This will broaden, deepen and impart more liquidity to the debt market.

[05:43:44 PM] => Neyha M: Do you think oil prices will be increased? If yes what will be the likely impact? Is the world heading for a recession?
[05:45:04 PM] => RD: Oil prices have fallen sharply because of a lack of demand, however if the current crisis spills over into the middle east oil should go above $30 a barrel. this will lead to a worsening of the fiscal deficit. In my opinion the world is already heading for a recession.

[05:49:34 PM] => Vinod Choudhary: Sir since a number of front-line stocks have fallen to abysmally low levels, do you think this is the best time to buy?
[05:50:04 PM] => RD: it is a good time to start buying. At the next reaction one could commit 15 % of investible funds and watch the international situation before committing further.

[05:50:29 PM] => What steps India should take with an intention to stabilize the markets?
[05:50:59 PM] => Raghu: Sir since a number of front-line stocks have fallen to abysmally low levels,do you think this is the best time to buy?
[05:51:01 PM] => Indian markets are now in sympathy with global markets and therefore local action has limited impact.
[05:51:51 PM] => however the second generation reforms and disinvestment if carried through would definitely give a fillip to the markets.
[05:53:00 PM] => RD: My last wish is that whatever you do , I hope it is profitable.

[05:56:09 PM] => Myiris: That is the end of todays Chat session with Mt Ranjan Dhawan, MD PNB Asset Management Co Ltd.
[05:56:36 PM] => Myiris: We thank Ms. Dhawan for making this an informative session.
[05:57:09 PM] => Myiris : Thank you all for your participation.