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[04:16:07 PM]
=> Welcome to the Chat Session ; Mr Nikunj
Doshi will be joining us in few minutes
[04:17:53 PM] => DISCLAIMER :
[04:18:11 PM] => Mr. Nikunj doshi
is the Head Research at Refco-Sify securities India Pvt Ltd.
At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Doshi may or
may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below , although
holdings may change at any time.
[04:18:32 PM] => The views expressed
by Mr. Nikunj Doshi is based upon information that he considers
reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete,
and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. doshi, his company
and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees
may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy
or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives
thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions
inconsistent with the views expressed. None of the information
contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute
a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy
or a determination that any security or trading strategy is
suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the
information contained herein may be deemed to be investment
advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to
the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult
with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use
such information in making any investment decision.
[04:19:00 PM] => Lastly the views
expressed by Mr. Nikunj Doshi have no bearing whatsoever with
that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy
or completeness of any information and is not responsible
for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from
the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it
has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account
of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:30:47 PM] => Myiris: Dear
friends, Welcome once again, Mr Nikunj Doshi is here and will
begin the session in a moment
[04:31:20 PM] => Welcome to the
show Mr Nikunj, Let's begin the session
[04:31:39 PM] => Rajinisinha:
If Mukta Arts� Yaadein proves to be a hit, how much can it
contribute to the bottom line of the company?
[04:32:07 PM] => ND:
Mukta has sold its distribution rights in India, except Mumbai,
for Rs 8.5cr. And whatever collection would come from Mumbai
region will be income for Mukta. Also it will receive overflow
from other territories if the film is hit. We expect profit
from Yaadein to be around Rs 17cr.
[04:33:08 PM] => Cherry: Is there
anything left to analyze in technology scrips? Has the tech
industry become like any other commodity? What's your view
over the next
[04:33:35 PM] => year
on IT industry? Average Industry growth rate?
[04:34:21 PM] => ND:
I think hay days are over for the IT industry. We expect growth
rate for 20-25% is possible for large IT companies. Also,
we expect margins to come down gradually. However, considering
valuations of some of the IT stocks we feel one can identify
good investment opportunities.
[04:35:06 PM] => Prashah60: What�s
your near term strategy for India, and are FII afraid of the
Rupee being devalued substantially? Also, your views on the
ice sector and your top five picks in the current scenario?
[04:36:09 PM] => ND:
I think Indian stock market is in turmoil. There are several
uncertainties. If the FI�s start defaulting or there is downgrade
by rating agencies, we can see a tremendous selling pressure.
In such an environment if such a thing occurs, we may see
a major panic. My advice is to wait till October. ICE stocks
could be looked for investment but as I have mentioned value
picks could be identified and bought gradually. Top five picks
: to be purchased on decline are : Dr. Reddy�s, Ranbaxy, Digital,
Infosys (below Rs 3000) and L&T.
[04:37:39 PM] => Jamshed: Mr.
Doshi - Likely impact of OPEC cutting OIL Supply by a billion
barrels on the world Economy as a whole and in India particularly.
Secondly, would you finally state that a recession has set
in all the economies of the world?
[04:39:31 PM] => ND:
Any increase in oil price could have a major adverse impact
on India, as the government is facing problems on several
fronts and may not be able to manage the scene. I believe
this is for the first time in several decades that the entire
global economy is passing through a tough time. Hence, worst
days could still be ahead.
[04:39:53 PM] => Bijal_kapadia:
Where can I trade options on Internet?
[04:40:58 PM] => ND:
I�m pleased to inform you that Refco-Sify is launching online
options trading site very shortly. You�ll know about this
from media.
[04:42:10 PM] => Vikram.Dhawan:
Zee to keep/sell/buy?
[04:43:23 PM] => ND:
Basic business model is very strong. Only problem is corporate
governance. Hence, once investigations are over we can take
a view. I would recommend to wait/hold.
[04:43:47 PM] => Mumta: As IT
Sector market is down, whether it will affect for other sector
of market i.e. old economy. Telco has declared a very bad
result for the financial Y 01, as a investor what will be
your advise. Whether the resignation of Finance Minister asked
by the opposition party hits
[04:44:21 PM] => the
market very badly on lower side, of present settlement and
in future?
[04:44:50 PM] => ND:
As advised earlier market may still go down hence, individual
investors are advised to stay away. I�ll recommend buying
in good stocks at declines.
[04:45:27 PM] => rajsinghal3:
Do you think we have rock bottom of our Sensex?
[04:45:37 PM] => ND:
No.
[04:45:50 PM] => Bonny: What about
the future of Indian stock Markets? Which direction is the
Sensex heading?
[04:46:17 PM] => ND:
Already replied.
[04:48:09 PM] => Verma1986: Sir,
I have purchased NIIT @ Rs. 410,SSI @ Rs. 367 and Satyam @
Rs. 210, Can I hold on or exit?
[04:49:03 PM] => ND:
We have recommended Sell on NIIT at Rs 600 considering the
Management�s inability to manage the business in uncertain
times. I still maintain Sell. SSI and Satyam we are not tracking.
[04:50:25 PM] => Soumyabatadutt:
I bought TISCO @ Rs 115. Should I add some more at the current
market price.
[04:50:49 PM] => ND:
Tisco�s plan to venture into telecom is worrying. Till the
details are clarified I�ll advice to stay away.
[04:51:38 PM] => Akhil:
What about the other schemes of UTI? How do you see them faring
in the coming days?
[04:52:04 PM] => ND:
I think they are in tremendous pressure and performance could
be adversely affected due to this
[04:52:58 PM] => Singh: What are
your views on Pharma sector?
[04:53:32 PM] => ND:We
are positive on the Indian Pharma companies. In Indian companies
we recommend Dr. Reddy�s, Ranbaxy and Cipla. In MNCs we have
BUY on Pfizer.
[04:54:38 PM] => Aki: Should we
hold on with US-64 units post August?
[04:54:57 PM] => ND:
No. Sell.
[04:55:47 PM] => Nehal: What's
your view on the top line IT stocks? And also will the small
players survive, do we see any merger & acquisition happening
in the industry?
[04:56:11 PM] => ND:
I see large Indian companies prospering in medium term. Medium/Smaller
companies will find difficult to survive. However, genuine
companies will find enough business to keep them going. Regarding
M&A I expect large acquisitions taking place in the next few
months.
[04:56:55 PM] => Monagoyal: Do
the Tech stocks in the markets still depend on NASDAQ movement?
[04:57:26 PM] => ND:
Yes. Stock market and valuations work on sentiments and NASDAQ
still has bearing on our sentiments.
[04:58:33 PM] => Dipanssd2000:
What�s your view on the growth rate expected to be achieved
by the front-line tech stocks over next 2-3 years in terms
of revenue and profitability?
[04:58:51 PM] => ND:
I believe growth of 20-25% should not be difficult. However,
bottomline could grow marginally lower.
[04:59:55 PM] => Battingo: What
are the prospects of small cap stocks like Zicom which your
firm has been recommending? What do you specifically look
for in such stocks?
[05:00:44 PM] => ND:We
had done a visit note on Zicom. We have full confidence in
business model of the company and performance so far has been
upto our expectations. However, their deal with CA is taking
longer than expected, hence, price has declined in line with
the market.
[05:01:40 PM] => Sanjayagawal01:
With poor PC penetration in India, what do you feel the future
of e-commerce in India in coming 2-years, Sify�s business
model is mainly based on e-commerce, from which year do you
feel it will start giving an EPS at par to face value of share.
Is it a buy at $1.8 or not. What price you target in one year
hence.
[05:02:11 PM] => ND:
E-commerce has started in some manner in India. Most of the
corporates are using it to improve their efficiencies. However,
B2C will take few years to really take off. As Sify is our
investment partner we do not comment on its performance.
[05:05:03 PM] => Karkera_m :Is
the market headed toward a disaster?
[05:05:25 PM] => ND:
Replied earlier
[05:06:01 PM] => Kaushikm99: WILL
INFOSYS GO AT 3200 LEVELS WITHIN NEXT 15 DAYS if yes than
why?
[05:06:27 PM] => ND:
Possible. Infosys is overowned stock. Hence, any desperate
seller can pull price down.
[05:06:56 PM] => Sonudhan : Does
IT stocks have any bottom?
[05:07:22 PM] => ND:
There is no bottom for any stock in the market, except that
it touches zero
[05:08:02 PM] => PAPA Bear: Nikunj,
the wave theory says that the last bottom for the sensex is
at 2851,Do you feel that it can be reached when the FIIs do
a sell off to meet their redemption demands.
[05:08:30 PM] => ND:
Very much possible. That is the reason I advised someone earlier
on the chat to buy in Oct. as most of the selling pressure
is in Oct./Nov.
[05:09:33 PM] => NayanMehta :Hi,
Which sector do you think will outperform in the next 6-12
months and why?
[05:09:49 PM] => ND:Indian
Pharma.
[05:10:29 PM] => Tandonr: Where
do you see the MTNL share price moving with the 4th cell licensee
coming in?
[05:11:02 PM] => ND:MTNL
is one of the many PSU, which is underpriced due to factors
not related to the actual performance. Entry of Fourth player
will not have any major negative impact as MTNL is the most
competitive.
[05:11:30 PM] => Hks1978 : Can
Infosys touch 1900, Do you feel that it is overvalued at 3610?
[05:13:03 PM] => ND:
We have rated Infosys as market performer.
[05:13:53 PM] => PAPA Bear : Nikunj,
we are closely following US economy. Is it compulsory that
our IT sector should show a decline if the US economy suffers.
Aren\'t our billing rates lower than our US counterparts,
Can we be a strong competitive force for the US economy. ?
[05:14:46 PM] => ND:Major
market for the Indian IT companies is the US, hence, any slowdown
there would have an impact. On billing rates front the clients
are aware of cost structure in India and they would try to
bargain for better rates as they are facing pressure on their
business. Also suddenly there is change in demand supply scenario,
therefore, Indian companies have lost bargaining power with
the US companies. Getting business is not difficult but maintaining
high margins is.
[05:19:13 PM] => Myiris : Hold
on friends, Mr Doshi will be back in a minute
[05:23:28 PM] => Kaushik : Is
Nath seeds a biotech company & at 25 levels how is this company?
[05:23:58 PM] => ND:
Nath Seeds is hybrid seeds company. Bio tech is very different
area. The company needs to restructure only then it would
be a good buy
[05:24:25 PM] => Rahuldhawan :
: Hi Nikunj, How r u ? what are your top 5 picks ?
[05:24:54 PM] => ND:Mentioned
earlier.
[05:29:46 PM] => Myiris: Mr Doshi
will be back in a minute
[05:31:36 PM] => Gibbs_09 : Where
do u see the cement cartel going ahead. how long do u think
it will sustain and which is your best pick amongst the cement
sector, why?
[05:32:25 PM] => ND:
We think consolidation in cement sector will help the cartel
to sustain at least for a yearBest picks in Cement sector
are Larsen & toubro and ACC. Both the companies have got very
good geographic spread. While L&T is already efficient producer,
ACC is expected to improve drastically.
[05:33:11 PM] => Kannan: What
do you feel about the prospects of Videocon Appliances' share
price moving up ? It is quoted much below the book value?
[05:33:27 PM] => ND:
No comments
[05:35:16 PM] => Myiris: Mr Doshi
will be back in a minute
[05:40:08 PM] => Kaushikm99 :
According to you what should be the success rate of research
analyst? I hope atleast 50 % which major analyst fail to achieve.
[05:40:21 PM] => ND:
There are always two risks in the market. One is market related
and another is company related. Analyst can at the most do
his due diligence on company specific parameters. My definition
for success therefore is identifying good companies at earlier
stage.
[05:40:42 PM] => Nayan : What
should be the right time to buy software stocks for value
investing? What should be the holding period and what kind
of returns can be expected?
[05:41:03 PM] => ND:
I think one should wait till October as the current quarter
will provide a fair view on the performance of US economy.
And now getting more than 20 per cent return in current environment
is difficult.
[05:41:59 PM] => Myiris : Well
friends, that was the last question Mr Doshi answered
[05:43:01 PM] => Myiris : Thank
you Mr Doshi for a very lively and informative chat session.
Thanks for sharing your views with us
[05:43:29 PM] => ND: Thank you
all the participants and myiris for conducting this session
[05:44:12 PM] => Myiris : Thank
you all the participants and do not forget to join for another
chat session on
[05:45:54 PM] => Monday, 30th
July 2001, with Mr R sukumar - VP Investments and Fund Manager
Kothari Pioneer AMC Ltd
[05:46:27 PM] => Thanks and Bye
for now
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