[03:48:05 PM] => Myiris: Ladies and Gentlemen, Just a reminder!
[03:48:39 PM] => Myiris: The live Chat session with Mr. Nadkarni will begin at 4:30 P.M today.
[04:23:09 PM] => Myiris: We welcome you to the Live Chat Session with Mr. Girish Nadkarni.
[04:23:52 PM] => Myiris: Mr. Nadkarni will be joining us in a few minutes.
[04:29:35 PM] => Myiris: The Chat is now in session.

[04:29:50 PM] => Myiris: DISCLAIMER

[04:30:39 PM] => Myiris: Mr. Girish Nadkarni is the Director of TAIB Securities (India) Ltd. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Girish may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below , although holdings may change at any time.The views expressed by Mr. Girish Nadkarni is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Girish, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.

[04:31:19 PM] => Myiris: None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.

[04:31:44 PM] => Myiris: Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Girish have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.

[04:32:48 PM] => Shilpajain: Hello Sir, When do you think the volumes pick up, which has almost reduced to 1/10th compared to last year. Will it again start picking up in today�s market condition? What are the Sectors you are bullish on?
[04:33:13 PM] => What do you think of upcoming Biotech industry? Do you think it is the right time for investment if we are at long-term period or do you expect the market to fall below this levels?
[04:33:45 PM] => GN: The peak level volumes witnessed last year were significantly on a higher side because of high level of speculative activities. However I agree with you that the volumes today are much lesser and hence volatility is likely to be high.
[04:34:08 PM] => I think two factors are necessary for volumes to pick up 1) the players in the markets need to sense profits from the markets and
[04:34:46 PM] => 2) Retail participation has to improve for which there needs to be a pick up in the derivatives markets or alternatively a mechanism for financing the margin trades. My guess is it will take 6 months for the volumes to pick up. We continue to be bullish on the IT sector and also the Power sector. The valuations of a couple of two-wheeler companies are also very attractive.
[04:35:22 PM] => Battingo: How do you identify good small cap stocks? I'd read TAIB's report on Zicom some time back. What are the risks in such stocks?

[04:35:54 PM] => GN: I think in the current market scenario companies with strong cash-flows would be the ones who will outperform. In identifying good stocks whether small caps or otherwise, one would have to look at the quality of promoters, quality and sustainability of earnings and returns on capital employed.
[04:36:40 PM] => The risks in stocks like Zicom is that the holding period mighty be much longer because of a disinterest in the markets for such stocks in the current market condition.
[04:37:31 PM] => Verma1986: Sir, tell me the outlook for stocks like Satyam, NIIT, SSI and Hughes telecom?

[04:38:33 PM] => GN: While the markets have taken a negative view on Education stocks like NIIT and SSI, we believe that the long term business potential for these companies remains intact and therefore at today�s valuations we find the stocks attractive.
[04:39:12 PM] => With respect to Satyam there are issues relating to its subsidiaries Sify.com and the likelihood of its attaining break-even in the near future. This has impacted the valuations of Satyam and we would not recommend an investment until there is clarity on the future revenues.
[04:39:54 PM] => Get_Anand: Will the market go down drastically still? At what level can we enter in to the market?

[04:40:49 PM] => GN: We believe that the market has discounted most of the bad news and despite the current hiccups such as the UTI crisis, the market is very close to the bottom. We would rather adopt a bottom up strategy and decide on specific stock investments rather than wait for a specific level.

[04:41:28 PM] => Rahu.i: I own 150 shares of DSQ Software. My purchase price is Rs. 500 per share. I would like to know what should be my investment strategy on this. Can I retain this share?
[04:41:59 PM] => GN: Based on the concerns related to Corporate governance, I would recommend that you get out of DSQ software.

[04:42:32 PM] => Rmadhavan: The cause of the rogue trades paralyzing the NSE on 4th July is clearly the result of software logical errors. It is surprising that the concerned authorities in NSE/BSE did not visualize this situation and provided for necessary changes in the software.
[04:42:57 PM] => This raises doubt on the credibility of their functioning and the investor care. What do you feel?
[04:43:24 PM] => GN: The rogue trades/errors happen on most exchanges in the world and sometimes it may not be possible to visualize all possible situations. However, I think the NSE has handled the problem very professionally in suspending trading, canceling the abnormal trades and then re-starting.

[04:43:53 PM] => Geetageetaraj: Despite trading cum bonus, the Blue Dart scrip has actually fallen from 230 levels to 180 levels after the bonus was announced. Why is it so?
[04:44:30 PM] => GN: The overall market conditions and the lack of liquidity has resulted in the price coming down. The overall business remains sound and we are very optimistic.

[04:44:58 PM] => Avi: Dear Sir, what is the lowest share rate in current date, and is it advisable to buy a quantity of it?
[04:45:19 PM] => GN: Your question is not very clear. Is it with respect to any specific stock?

[04:45:57 PM] => Gopaul: What are the prospects of Maars Software? Can I buy Crest communication as a long-term buy of 1 year?
[04:46:22 PM] => GN: The basic business of Maars software that is ERP has seen improvement internationally and is therefore is likely to positively impact the company.
[04:46:48 PM] => However the issue of corporate governance still remains and it may be better to wait & watch the results for next two quarters before investing in the same.
[04:47:10 PM] => There has been a lot of hype about certain tie-ups with International companies for Crest communications and as a result the stock price has seen some upward movement after hitting a low. While the company has strong technical skills, the overall slowdown in the business is likely to impact the company in the near future and hence I would not recommend Crest at this rate.

[04:47:36 PM] => Vilax: I have bought Shyam Tele at Rs. 65. I would like to sell it after a year, how much growth can it provide.
[04:48:04 PM] => GN: While a further downside seems limited, the overall improvement in the price is dependent on the overall recovery in the stock prices of the technology companies. There is also a likelihood of consolidations in the Telecom sector, which could have a positive impact on the company.

[04:48:34 PM] => Chitah12345: Sir, In the aftermath of the rolling settlement and US-64 debacle can you recommend three stocks for the small investors like us who can probably invest in them and hope to make some recovery of the losses made last year.
[04:49:05 PM] => GN: I think it is best to stick to companies with Quality management and prospects of strong earnings in the medium term. I think at current prices stocks like ABB, NIIT and ITC should do well and could yield good returns.

[04:49:15 PM] => Infoworl: Future of Sataym for investment?
[04:49:35 PM] => GN: Already answered earlier. Refer to answer to verma1986 question.

[04:50:03 PM] => Swatikaura: What is carry forward? Why has it been banned? What is the system followed by other countries?
[04:50:30 PM] => GN: Carry forward is a mechanism of deferring trades across settlements by payment of margin and finance charges (Badla).
[04:50:55 PM] => The system had been grossly misused and had led to excessive speculation leading to sharp spurts and sudden falls in the prices. The system followed in most countries is the current system of settlements on a T+5 basis and along with a separate market for derivatives.

[04:51:13 PM] => Ayan: Sir, Any good bets in MNC, Pharma & FMCG companies, with good 15-20% growth in current year? At what price level I should invest in them?
[04:51:45 PM] => GN: In the FMCG sector companies like ITC and Smithkline Consumer look pretty attractive at current prices. In the pharma sector over the medium term Indian companies are expected to do well.
[04:52:15 PM] => However the valuations are a bit expensive and we believe that despite a dull performance in the recent past, Glaxo could be a good long term stock. Also Hoechst Marion Rousell looks very attractive at current price.
[04:53:56 PM] => Myiris: Mr. Nadkarni, is answering an important phone call and will be back in a few minutes. Please bear with us.

[04:55:12 PM] => Keval: Are our FMCG companies worth the P/E multiples or discounting cash-flow multiples or ROC multiples at current prices given dismal growth rates? Your views on Gillette India , HLL and Britannia?
[04:55:55 PM] => GN: I agree that most FMCG companies have shown low volume growths in the current year, but that was also an impact of the deficient monsoons last year leading to low rural demand.
[04:56:26 PM] => With the outlook on the monsoons very good this year, this is expected to change and while we may not see the heady growth rates witnessed by these companies in the mid-nineties, we are fairly optimistic about these companies posting good growth rates. Further most of these companies are very well managed with good corporate governance and strong cash flows.
[04:57:10 PM] => From a medium term perspective all the three companies are sound investments and one can expect a 20-22 per cent compounded annual growth rates.

[04:57:55 PM] => Harikishen: Is Tisco a good buy at around 100 levels - your views on the Steel Sector - are we going to see a revival in old economy, that is the manufacturing sector?
[04:58:52 PM] => GN: Tisco has shown a remarkable turnaround and the last year saw record profits on account of an optimal product mix and huge gains on account of restructuring. This is likely to continue in the future and if the Government�s infrastructure spending does pick up, Tisco would further benefit. Tisco is a good buy at current levels.

[04:59:42 PM] => Mani: What are you expecting of Infosys and Wipro based on results of this QTR and, further guidance in the long term - Would you advise me to hold onto both these stocks at present or should I get the hell out?
[05:00:25 PM] => GN: The management has already indicated lower growth rates for the coming year, while the market is still expecting Infosys to outperform the projected growth rate of 30 per cent, there could be some disappointment immediately after the results.
[05:00:57 PM] => However in the absence of any outstanding positions on the stocks and fairly attractive valuations, I think both the scrips should move up from the current levels in the next couple of months. My advice � Hold on to both the stocks.

[05:01:26 PM] => Kanak: Where do you see this bear rally ending - 2750?
[05:01:42 PM] => GN: I am not so bearish on the markets and the markets should look up in the next couple of months, however because of increased volatility, the market could test its previous bottom of 3096.

[05:02:18 PM] => Mandeep: Can other mutual funds also do a UTI - that is ban the sale and repurchase for some time - if they can given whatever law what in gods name has SEBI being doing - isn't it supposed to safe guard the interest of the small investor or are they just sitting and enlarging their paunches
[05:02:42 PM] => GN: Other Mutual funds would not face the situation as they are already NAV based. The problem with US64 is the dichotomy between its NAV and the repurchase price.

[05:03:05 PM] => Ramesh: Given market turmoil can you actually spot a silver lining in them?
[05:03:16 PM] => GN: I think the whole market is full of opportunities and one must make use of all negative news to invest in value stocks.

[05:03:34 PM] => Akansham: I have not heard much of TAIB securities - what services do you offer us as lay investors?
[05:04:16 PM] => GN: TAIB Securities currently caters only to Institutional clients, however in the next couple of months we would be launching our online web trading for retail investors and you could then get registered.

[05:07:07 PM] => Hunoz: With option spreads being too huge at this point do you see people transacting in them for the next few months. How does one calculate the
[05:07:46 PM] => GN: The problem with Options trading that one has witnessed in last couple of days is that, there are no Option writers in the market. Therefore in the few cases where there are writers, the spreads are very large.
[05:08:48 PM] => This is indicative of people unwilling to take risks with writing options on account of various factors such as uncertainties in the cash market and absence of understanding of pricing options etc. It will take some time for this market to pick up.

[05:09:39 PM] => Santosh: The Government keeps on changing its figures like the weather and the moods of a women- GDP estimates have been scaled down and growth rates are expected to be in the 4-5% range- would you advise me to invest in this
[05:11:35 PM] => GN: I agree that there has been a down grading of the growth rates in the GDP estimates, however two factors make me optimistic, 1) good monsoon and the consequent strong impact on GDP and 2) expectations of Government spending in infrastructure projects leading to an overall recovery in the industrial sector.

[05:13:39 PM] => Bkexport: What do you think about L&T, HPCL & Sterlite Opticals. Should we enter in the market now, and which are the sectors you would advice for investments: Software, Steel, Cement, Refinery, Entertainment, Banks.
[05:15:35 PM] => GN: I think L&T should be a big beneficiary of the Govt infrastructure spending and a likelihood of a firmness in the cement prices. The sale of the cement business would result in substantial interest savings and strong cash flows.
[05:17:13 PM] => With respect to HPCL, while it is cheap on all valuation parameters, there is expected to be a pressure on the refining margins in the future, and hence a strong out performance seems unlikely.
[05:18:34 PM] => In the case of Sterlite Opticals, the current price makes it an attractive buy. The comfortable order book position and the expected strong demand for the next two years, also reiterate our buy on the stock.

[05:19:20 PM] => Janak: The media sector at this point is looking very attractive since all channels are expected to go pay - the freebies are over - should one look at investing in stocks like Zee and maybe unlisted stock such as NDTV?
[05:21:59 PM] => GN: I think ZEE at the current price looks positive despite the negative publicity that the company recieved over the last couple of months. The benefits of the Pay Channel should begin flowing immediately and although the stock might be volatile because of a strong speculative interest, one can expect a good return from the current level of Rs. 100.
[05:22:31 PM] => An investment in a stock like NDTV would be dependent on the pricing.

[05:24:45 PM] => Preeti kumari: The primary market for Equity looks almost dead, what do you say about this? Will it pick up?
[05:26:04 PM] => GN: I agree the primary market has been dead for sometime and is likely to be so for quite some time. The primary market is dependent on the secondary market and only a revival in the secondary market would spur companies and investors to enter the primary market.

[05:26:39 PM] => ashok k aggarwal: How do you see markets during the next week?
[05:27:58 PM] => GN: My view is that markets will be eagerly awaiting the results from Infosys next week and the mood would be determined by it. However, I expect the markets to be strong despite a lot of negative news flowing in the markets.
[05:28:46 PM] => However, the markets will continue to be volatile over the coming months.

[05:30:05 PM] => sanjay agarwal: Why Indian Tech. stocks who cater in majority to U.S markets & u.k are not behaving along with global trend i.e.. Falling?
[05:31:55 PM] => GN: The Indian markets have moved in line with the International markets, and while the Sensex might not have fallen in line with Nasdaq, the more relevant comparison would be with the Mindex which has fallen more than the fall in the UK and US stocks.

[05:32:36 PM] => sanjay agarwal: Why Infosys is continuously strong when all other stocks are showing weakness
[05:33:48 PM] => GN: There has been a shift in the Fund strategy towards investing in large Cap and well managed stocks and hence at every fall there are institutional investors who are willing to invest in Infosys as the valuations are attractive.
[05:34:31 PM] => Hence, after the initial fall Infosys has been fairly stable in a band of 3200-3800 although, very volatile.

[05:35:35 PM] => hitendra vasudeo: The SENSEX has formed a bearish pattern called ENGULFING BEAR pattern on weekly charts. What do you feel about the market
[05:36:39 PM] => GN: The Engulfing Bear pattern is indicative of a short term downward pressure on the markets. However, the medium term charts suggest a bottoming process being under way.

[05:37:19 PM] => k kamal: its good to buy IT scrip now?
[05:38:00 PM] => GN: I have already answered this earlier. We are fairly positive on the Investment in IT stocks at the current levels.

[05:39:05 PM] => bren111: Which one sector do you consider as a growth sector over the next 12-15 months and name 2 companies that you consider the best in that sector.
[05:40:21 PM] => GN: I think besides the IT sector, on which I have dwelt at length above, we are bullish on the Power Sector and stocks like Tata Power and ABB would be good bets over the next 12-15 months.

[05:41:08 PM] => Rajesh: Is geometric soft in good business?
[05:42:59 PM] => GN: Geometric is in a niche segment of software products and services, that is, CAD/CAM and CAE, where the growth rates globally have slowed down but the addressable market is still very large for a small company like Geometric to succeed.

[05:43:46 PM] => preeti: From where the lay man like us understand how does options work can you please tell us where should we get such leads?
[05:46:01 PM] => GN: There are a lot of web sites that offer information, in addition to books. Further, of late there are alot of conferences on this subject that you may wish to attend. Also, a good way to get a feel of the options and futures market would be sit with a broker when the market is live and understand the implications of the trades done.

[05:46:37 PM] => vedachelam: May I invest in equity or in income funds?
[05:47:04 PM] => GN: If you have the risk appetite, Equities would be the right place to invest now.

[05:47:26 PM] => Gourish: What is the future of debt markets vis-a-vis equity markets in the future?
[05:49:27 PM] => GN: With a move towards best international practices the Equity markets are likely to see increasing levels of investments in the medium term from all sets of investors. The debt markets, are fairly illiquid when compared internationally and therefore for small investors a debt fund may be the best alternative.

[05:50:33 PM] => Myiris: Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Nadkarni has just answered the last question for today's Live Chat Session.

[05:51:09 PM] => Myiris: We thank him for his time, and for a very informative session with us.

[05:51:33 PM] => Myiris: We also thank all the participants for their questions.

[05:52:26 PM] => Myiris: Please do join us on the 9th of July '2001 for another interactive Chat Session.

[05:53:16 PM] => Myiris: Our guest for the day is Mr. Nandakumar Surti, Head Fixed Income Fund, JM Mutual Fund.

[05:53:41 PM] => Myiris: Good Bye, and Thank you once again for joining us!