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| Transcript of Chat with Mr. Lalit K Khanna, Executive Director, Escorts Mutual Fund (31/12/2001) |
[04:35:50 PM] => Myiris : Welcome to the live chat session.
[04:36:50 PM] => Myiris : The chat session today is slightly delayed due to a technical problem. We'll be back soon...
[05:10:35 PM] => Myiris : Welcome back.
[05:10:45 PM] => Myiris : Our guest, Mr.Lalit K Khanna, Executive Director, Escorts Mutual Fund will be joining us shortly.
[05:10:51 PM] => DISCLAIMER
[05:10:59 PM] => Mr.Lalit K Khanna is the Executive Director, Escorts Mutual Fund. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Khanna may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time. The views expressed by Mr. Khanna is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Khanna, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[05:11:09 PM] => None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[05:11:19 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Khanna have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[05:11:30 PM] => Welcome to the chat session Mr. Khanna.
[05:11:44 PM] => Vishal : How do you expect the stockmarkets to perform in 2002?
[05:12:09 PM] => LK : Stock Markets should have a better year in 2002. The current political uncertainities should get over soon. Subsequent to that, hopes from the budget would be the main price drivers. Of course, eventually, eyes would be on the timing and the extent of economic recovery that should give a boost to the markets. But most likely, the worst is already behind us and the stock markets should give good returns in 2002.
[05:13:22 PM] => NG76 : Where do you expect the sensex to be before February 28th?
[05:15:31 PM] => LK : This coincides with the day of the budget and Mr. Sinha has a tough balancing act to follow. On one hand he has to carry forward the economic reforms and provide greater thrust to investments, and on the other he has to handle the precarious finances of the government. Markets would be very volatile in run up to the budget, but we can expect Sensex levels of around 3500.
[05:19:55 PM] => JR : How do you expect the Dow and Nasdaq Composite to behave this year? When do you expect the US recession to lift?
[05:20:28 PM] => As yet there are mixed signals on the US recession side. While consumer spending is still healthy, overall capital investments are still quite low. However, the rate cut spree followed by the Fed should start having the desired effect in the early second half of 2002. On these lines, we can expect the Dow and the Nasdaq to bottom out by March this year as stock markets typically lead economic performance.
[05:31:17 PM] => Jassi 210 : Where do you see the sensex and nifty in future? If war then what happens and if no war then what?
[05:31:47 PM] => LK : The political uncertainty surrounding Indo-Pak relations have definitely taken their toll. However, the fear of war is clearly on the wane now and markets are beginning to discount the possibility of war. However, in case the situation on the border escalates, we can expect a down move of 10-15%. In absence of such event, markets should continue to remain stable.
[05:32:52 PM] => Kurien B : Do you expect the Indian economy to revive in remaining three months of FY 2002? And what is your forecast for fy 2003?
[05:34:00 PM] => LK : Indian economy is showing signs of bottoming out as reflected in higher Commercial Vehicle and cement sales. However, it could be too early to draw conclusions of recovery through these. Indian economy should clearly recover by mid next year. Prospects are quite bright for FY 2003.
[05:35:15 PM] => pramod : Whether we should invest in income fund of mutual funds?
[05:35:54 PM] => LK : Income funds are clearly the better alternative to Bank Deposits as they provide better returns even while providing excellent liquidity. The interest rate outlook is also quite stable as of now, and one should actively look to invest in these funds.
[05:37:06 PM] => Ramesh Naik : What are the events that could trigger a bull run?
[05:38:53 PM] => LK : Diffusion of tension on borders. Economic recovery in India and around the globe. Lower oil prices. Introduction of more stocks in derivatives trade, along with lowering of minimum contract size. And commencement of second generation of economic reforms.
[05:39:06 PM] => Chandrashekhar : Which sectors would will do well in 2002?
[05:39:33 PM] => LK : Cement, Domestic pharma, front line IT stocks and divestment candidate PSUs.
[05:40:37 PM] => Raghav : In terms of size, will market preference be more in big-cap or mid-cap and small-cap stocks?
[05:41:00 PM] => LK : Big cap stocks, particularly where derivative trades are allowed, would be the favorites with domestic and foreign institutions and would command a premium over mid and small cap stocks.
[05:41:16 PM] => cidac : What would be your top five stock picks? Why?
[05:41:48 PM] => LK : We would not like to comment on individual stocks. Among sectors, we prefer cement, domestic pharma and front line tech stocks.
[05:42:25 PM] => ZNF : Sir, talking about interest rates, what is you best prediction for next 3 months - and rest of 2002?
[05:43:31 PM] => LK : Interest rates should remain stable till we get some clear signs of pick up in credit offtake. That, in turn, would largely follow from the economic recovery. The long-term direction of the interest rate is clearly on the lower side. However, during the year, interest rates may look up in case manufacturing sector picks up sharply or the global oil prices again move up.
[05:43:47 PM] => Tushar : In MFs, which category do you think will perform best this year?
[05:44:13 PM] => LK : Overall, equities should be able to outperform fixed income instruments this year.
[05:44:49 PM] => Vinay : Will 2002 be a bull market, a bear market, or a sideways market?
[05:44:59 PM] => LK : Markets should look up during 2002. However, the rise may not be a very steep.
[05:45:42 PM] => Kamlesh : What do you think of tech scrips? Do you think the current rally is for real?
[05:47:33 PM] => LK : Outlook for front line tech companies is improving after the events of 11th September 2001. While competition for them has increased, the concept of �outsourcing� as a business model is gaining favours all over. Leading Indian companies should be able to exploit and benefit from it.
[05:48:50 PM] => Raghu : Your opinion about US-64 disclosures? What will be the impact?
[05:49:14 PM] => LK : The declared NAV of US 64 is lower than expectations. However, the support provided from the government in terms of guaranteed price of Rs. 10 as on May 2003 would limit large scale immediate repurchases. The small investors should also find the controlled increase of 10 paise every month for next two years attractive and tempt most of them o hold on to their units.
[05:49:26 PM] => BReddy : Sir, Is Reliance Petro a good buy at present levels?
[05:49:47 PM] => LK : We would not like to comment on individual stocks. But war fears clearly seem overdone.
[05:49:57 PM] => Sanjeev : Your views on Silverline Tech?
[05:50:41 PM] => LK : No comments.
[05:50:54 PM] => Sudha Raman : Sir, Does Escorts provide one with a diversified umbrella?
[05:52:38 PM] => LK : Escorts Mutual Fund offers a wide array of schemes to cover both � the equity and the debt. On the debt side we offer Escorts Income Plan (a pure debt scheme) and Escorts Gilt Plan. On the equity scheme we offer Escorts
[05:54:03 PM] => Sda56 : What about Digital Equipment? Good buy?
[05:54:35 PM] => Sudha Raman : Sir, Does Escorts provide one with a diversified umbrella?
[05:55:03 PM] => LK : Escorts Mutual Fund offers a wide array of schemes to cover both � the equity and the debt. On the debt side we offer Escorts Income Plan (a pure debt scheme) and Escorts Gilt Plan. On the equity scheme we offer Escorts Growth Plan (a diversified growth oriented equity scheme), Escorts Tax Plan (to give tax advantage in addition to potential of capturing long term growth in equities). For investors who are looking for slightly lower risk instruments but still want good returns, we offer Escorts Balanced Fund. Investors can assess their needs and join any of these plans.
[05:55:18 PM] => Sda56 : What about Digital Equipment? Good buy?
[05:55:27 PM] => LK : We would not like to comment on individual stocks. But overall we are positive on front line IT stocks and would be buyers on correction.
[05:55:35 PM] => Vgupta : Can you suggest two good pharma scrips?
[05:55:56 PM] => LK : Domestic pharma companies clearly offer the best potential right now. We would also recommend investors to stick to the large cap stocks only for the moment.
[05:56:08 PM] => Barun : Whats been the impact of Ambani's getting out of L&T?
[05:56:36 PM] => LK : It has no bearing on the fundamentals of the company. RIL has its own inhouse EPC division and is not a large customer of L&T. acquisition of RIL�s stake by Grasim should be beneficial not just to the two players but also to the whole cement industry. Going ahead, cement is going to be the chief money spinner for L&T next year.
[05:57:05 PM] => MV87 : Could you tell me good cement scrips to invest in?
[05:57:33 PM] => LK : No individual comments. But ACC, Gujarat Ambuja, L &T and Grasim all are fundamentally sound companies. Look out for pure cement companies in case you are very bullish on cement cycle. Else you can pick up the diversified companies.
[05:57:43 PM] => SK : Does investing equity funds make sense considering the low NAV?
[06:01:16 PM] => LK : One should invest in equity schemes if he believes that markets are likely to go up in the coming period. The level of NAVs should hamper your decision making process. Overall, it is a very good time to enter into equity schemes if you are a long-term investor and have a time horizon of at least 12-18 months.
[06:02:21 PM] => Myiris : Thats the end of the chat session for today.
[06:02:36 PM] => Myiris : Thank you all for your participation.
[06:02:59 PM] => Myiris : We thank Mr. Lalit Khanna for his time and inputs.
[06:03:16 PM] => Myiris : Till we meet again its bye from us...
[06:03:53 PM] => Myiris : Wish you all a very happy new year !!!
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