| Transcript of Chat with Mr.Arun Kejriwal,KRIS - 17th May 2002 |
[04:40:38 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the live chat session Mr Arun Kejriwal.
[04:40:59 PM] => Myiris: Our guest today is Mr Arun Kejriwal
[04:41:18 PM] => Myiris: Mr.Arun Kejriwal, KRIS (Kejriwal Research & Investment Services). At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr.Arun Kejriwal may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time. The views expressed by Mr.Arun Kejriwal is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr.Arun Kejriwal, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[04:41:39 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the live chat session
[04:43:10 PM] => ayanad1: Is the threat of War is real this time or it is providing good opportunity to buy good stocks at attractive levels? What should one look for as an indication that something bad for the market is on the horizon or vice versa?
[04:43:36 PM] => A.K.: War threat is always there. Real created or unreal and buying opportunities will exist as long as one is alive. Have stop losses and trade, money is always to be made.
[04:44:57 PM] => Varun:why are you bearish on It stocks
[04:45:15 PM] => May be my size makes me look more like a bull and therefore PSUs are my favourite. For those who have forgotten IBP was one such pick. As regards IT there is uncertainty even in USA. Hence the bearishness.
[04:46:20 PM] => mjsaida: In equity funds, which option is advisable? dividend option or growth option?
[04:46:41 PM] => A.K.: mjsaida: In equity funds, which option is advisable? dividend option or growth option?
[04:47:09 PM] => A.K.: It doesn't make any differance, but with the new IT laws, it would be better to go for growth option.
[04:48:15 PM] => Senorita: how is Global Trust Bank as a pick?
[04:48:28 PM] => A.K.: If I had a choice, I would prefer Bank Of India. However, if you like to play the takeover story, its a good bet.
[04:49:32 PM] => Swalia2121: Hughes tele @ 6.30 a good bet ? for the short term in light of merger with tata?
[04:49:53 PM] => A.K.: The stock has been hammered quite a bit, and even though it is trading at half its IPO price, I wouldn't recommend it, simply because of its losses.
[04:51:16 PM] => Senorita: what are the short to medium term (1-6 month) prospects of the Trent scrip?
[04:51:29 PM] => A.K.: There is lot of activity on the retail front and stocks like Trent and Pantaloon are doing well on this count. The stock could move up to around Rs 220 levels, and trading and investment is likely to be prfoitable.
[04:53:30 PM] => sureshn_jain: Should one risk buying, with the assumption that our govt. is lacking the
[04:53:38 PM] => A.K.: If you presume that the will and means will deter a strike, I think you would be wrong. The presence of US in Pakistan is a bigger deterrent. I believe, This time around the target would be PoK. In any case, buying on declines is profitable.
[04:56:19 PM] => Vinay: will IPCL gain further as the bid price is expected over Rs 200
[04:56:34 PM] => A.K.: The bids would be opened over the weekend and it would be known to all as to what price, IPCL has been divested. Two things would remain of interest. One the bidder and the price, and the second is how close the second bidder is. If for a moment we presume that IOC is successful at a price of Rs 225-245 and the next best is just around Rs 200, this would be negative. But assuming the same situation, if the next best is marginally below the best bid, then this would be extremely positive.
[04:58:00 PM] => mohanj_1: What are the avenues available for investing and getting Tax exemptions. My salary is around 8.00 lacs per annum. I have already invested in a house.
[04:58:14 PM] => A.K.: There are some benefits available under Sec 88. Further nothing from the Stock Market.
[04:58:58 PM] => Jai902: what are the best PSU stocks
[04:59:10 PM] => A.K.: I am very bullish on HBO, which stands for HPCL, BPCL and ONGC.
[05:00:33 PM] => Praveena: Do you expect a major fall in the short term as a result of the Home Trade scam.
[05:00:46 PM] => A.K.: The use of the money is not yet known. If during investigation, it could be proved that money was used in stock market, then there could be a fall other wise no problem to the market what so ever.
[05:03:40 PM] => Gurinder8: arun ji tell me some about some companies which had a huge cash in there
[05:03:52 PM] => A.K.: Your question is a little confusing. If you want to know about companies, which had cash and it is not there now, all you have to do is to look at private placements in 2000 and 2001 and you will know, that they no longer have it. However, if your question is about companies which have cash, I will have to look up many balance sheets and It would help to know why the interest.
[05:06:46 PM] => joyghosh100: Will South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction(SEAMEC) surge arround 250-260 from current price of 100 on the buy-back rumour of Technip group of France, parent.What\'s your view about NAlCO(bought at 94) and Escorts(bought at 62)How long should I wait on these two?Or should I sell? Best Regards.
[05:07:02 PM] => A.K.: SEAMEC and Rayban, along with Colourchem are in the news for possible buy-back. I believe things would be clearer by the end of may and once this meeting with Sebi is over price etc. Would become clearer. Nalco is in the news for divestment and the interest being shown by Hindalco in acquiring the same. As regard Escorts, the restructuring story is currently on and could take some time before becoming profitable.
[05:08:34 PM] => Cmhama1234: what is the future of zee tele shares?
[05:08:44 PM] => A.K.: I have never been and admirer of Zee and somehow, don't quite like the share. I has been one the big losers over the last ten days and with set top monitoring of viewers programmes could be a further loser.
[05:09:48 PM] => Arif sharif: is it advisable to switch from century enka to supreme petro?
[05:10:02 PM] => A.K.: Century Enka moved sharply today and an open offer will be coming shortly. I don not know any positive news on Supreme Petro.
[05:11:39 PM] => Adsule: Which companies from BPO small and Medium segment are good for investment?
[05:11:51 PM] => A.K.: It is still in the beginning stages and the segregation of small and medium segment is not yet complete. I would be able to give recommendation only later.
[05:16:12 PM] => Kramesh: What is your take on Polaris
[05:17:11 PM] => A.K.: The guidance by the management was unique in the fact that they spoke about, three years down the line, but could not comment about six months. In either case, they will always be right and the market none the wiser.
[05:18:30 PM] => Rkshetty: Dear Mr. Kejriwal, Are the following shares good picks for a time horizon
[05:18:39 PM] => A.K.: I agree with Birla 3M, M&M and McDowell, I don't track Jindal Strips and don't like Zee.
[05:21:26 PM] => Sanjoybasu: Dear Sir , Does the Equity Market still mean \"Give me MORE\" ? Where do you see the makets headed in the short (i month) medium (3 months) and long term (1 year scenario). Any stocks that i can look at?
[05:21:34 PM] => A.K.: Well, Hometrade and More go hand in hand. Markets are currently very choppy and uncertainty on various front like crossborder, political, IT reversal, and divestment are keeping markets confused and fairly volatile. None of these issues would get resolved in a hurry and opportunities to trade would be plenty. Stocks to look at include HBO, Auto and auto ancillaries and pharma.
[05:22:56 PM] => Apyadav: do u feel that market will come out of this phase ?
[05:23:03 PM] => A.K.: If you are worried about the weakness in the Sensex, I suggest ignoring tracking the Sensex and looking only at stock specific. Clearly PSUs and Auto are looking attractive.
[05:24:51 PM] => Amitrawal: tell me something about TATAPOWER SIR
[05:24:58 PM] => A.K.: It is one of the most cash rich companies in the Tats group and holds 50 p`er cent stake in Panatone, which is Tata's company for takeover of VSNL. Going forward, the restructuring of Tata Telecom activities could be centred around Tata Power and VSNL.
[05:26:22 PM] => shishirs: Is it alright to be long on HP/BP in current uncertain times
[05:26:32 PM] => A.K.: If you are interested in making money, there is no harm.
[05:35:16 PM] => Satish: Is it not time for Sebi to (a) make the contract size smaller so that the retail investor can purchase them (b)in a previous chat you had said that delivery can be taken of shares purchased in the F&O segment by the buyer. we are told that is not correct. Can you please tell us why this is not the case?
[05:35:27 PM] => A.K.: The origanal plan was for smaller size, but members of parliament wanted the higher size. the requirement for this higher size, according to them, was to give it elite status and debar small investors from entering derivative segment. As regards, delivery in F&O segmnent, I have never said that the same can be taken, however, on the last day of the settlement, all squre off would result in delivery has not happened due to postponment of the same by Sebi.
[05:37:52 PM] => Pradeep 30 : Forget the \"SQUARE\" Mr. Kejriwal it looks like a BIG BLACK HOLE !! I would like to know the state of your recommendations over the past 3 months. Secondly whispers have it that you have accumulated a large chunk of Rayban!!! what is your call on the counter?
[05:38:04 PM] => A.K.: I am very bullish on ONGC and It has done quite well. As regards my recommendations, I need not review them myself when I have wellwisheres like you keeping tab on my recommendations. As regards Rayban, I believe it is a fit case for takeover code to be applied and do have positions in the same. There is a meeting on 30th may with Sebi and the company.
[05:39:51 PM] => Amit: Your picks during war time ? Tell me something about BHEL? How it looks on chart ?
[05:40:09 PM] => A.K.: Let the war happen first. History tells us that during uncertain times like war markets after initial weakness have rebounded. Take Kargil 2000 as an example, where it rose 1000 points in 12 days during June-July 2000.
[05:50:37 PM] => T D JOSHI: Whom do you think IPCL goes to? When will things be clear? Do you feel Saturday ie. tomorrow shall be the auspicious day? Do you feel IPCL is going to IOC shall have negative impact on share prices of BPCL & HPCL?
[05:50:57 PM] => A.K.: On saturday and most likely IOC
[05:51:22 PM] => Amit: Tell me something about TATA Power,SIR.
[05:51:31 PM] => A.K.: Already answered
[05:52:29 PM] => Satish: I had bought june futures in ICICI with the impression that
[05:52:43 PM] => A.K.: ICICI Bank is not in the futures list, hence the trade can notbe converted.
[05:54:02 PM] => Soloman_19: If war what is the point of support of Index ?
[05:54:11 PM] => A.K.: I am not so bearish on war and believe that PoK is the target. Immediate support is around 3280 and a longer term support around 3100.
[05:55:08 PM] => Kuladeep: I bought D-link at 110. What can I do now ?
[05:55:19 PM] => A.K.: I don't Track D-Link, however you must have stop loss for any stock you buy.
[05:57:00 PM] => Amit: sir please tell me about BEML. Till what price should I hold ?
[05:57:11 PM] => A.K.: It has run up very sharply and is extremely volatile currently. I have booked profits and exited and I am not sure of price target now.
[05:58:41 PM] => A P Yadav: What do u feel about BPCL ? what will be the price after 3 months ?
[05:58:52 PM] => A.K.: Divestment story is the driver for BPCL and with HPCL to be divested first, action will shift to HPCL more that BPCL. Assuming all goes well, Rs 425-450 in six months is likelyhood.
[06:01:21 PM] => Raj: Mr. Kejriwal, what is your view whether long term investor should take this time down trend as opportunity to buy fundamentally good value picks or wait for the time being ? Mr.Kejriwal, which sector you find has good potential & in the
[06:01:33 PM] => A.K.: USE dipps to buy into ONGC and auto sector. Auto ancilliaries, pharma and banking sector looks attractive. Stock specific ONGC, Hero Honda, Bank Of India, J&K Bank, Fedral Bank.
[06:02:00 PM] => Rajesh: Your view on goldstone teleservices. Is it a good long term bet?should I buy into it at current P/E of 2.9 ?
[06:02:11 PM] => A.K.: I don't track the stock.
[06:08:07 PM] => Satish: There is a lot of confusion all around with different newspapers talking about different companies. Is it not the duty of the government to make a categorical statement which PSUs are going to be disinvested in each financial year and which psu will never be disinvested.
[06:08:22 PM] => A.K.: IOC buying IBP is divestment as per the government and people or investors who bought IBP shares have made a killing.
[06:08:51 PM] => Jack: At what price should one buy satyam ?
[06:09:02 PM] => A.K.: There should be a technical bounce from current levels.
[06:09:45 PM] => Arun : How is SBI and ICICI Bank ?
[06:09:56 PM] => A.K.: Good Stocks, but ICICI Bank after merger, there could be some selling pressure from ICICI investors.
[06:10:53 PM] => Jai Kumar: What about Bong. Refinery worth a buy at 14-15 ?
[06:14:16 PM] => A.K.: The driver for this stock is a potential merger with IOC. I see no immediate reason or urgency
[06:14:29 PM] => ayan shah: Mr. Kejriwal which few stocks you hoped would have some
[06:15:52 PM] => A.K.: I believe the refinery counters and ONGC are attractive. AS regards getting in touch please forward your queries to Myiris, who will forward same to me.
[06:19:32 PM] => Chenna :Infotech enterprises - worth a buy ... whats the dory. What
[06:19:51 PM] => A.K.: Infotech, good products and good prospects. D-Link, speculator driven, yes to some extent.
[06:21:37 PM] => Amit :WHAT U THINK ABOUT AUTO ANCILLARIES SECTOR ?
[06:22:32 PM] => A.K.: With the turnaround in Auto and good monsoon having positive effect on rural economy, effect has shown on huge growth in auto particularly two-wheelers.
[06:22:42 PM] => Sanjay: I have invested in RIL at 295 levels and RPL - right from 55.0
[06:23:26 PM] => A.K.: The petrochemical cycle has bottomed out and prices of polymer are moving up. Reliance has the potential to move up to Rs 350 in six months hence.
[06:23:36 PM] => Joshi: In M&M & Ashok Leyland which scrip you prefer. Which can give
[06:23:46 PM] => A.K.: Ashok Leyland looks better and could appreciate by 25 per cent in six months.
[06:24:42 PM] => Raj :Mr.Kejriwal,please let me know few good companies in IT
[06:24:55 PM] => A.K.: This is still a grey area and I am still wondering about some good companies in such stocks.
[06:26:39 PM] => Prime: Why is the focus missing on fundamentallyy good companies like Goldstone Tele, Eonour Tech? Your recommendation on these companies...
[06:26:54 PM] => A.K.: I have yet to go through the same and have to understand their products and business profile.
[06:27:04 PM] => Ayan: Mr. kejriwal in second run Software and media counters there
[06:35:02 PM] => A.K.: Look at those companies, who have performed during the last three to four quarters and management is transperant. I like companies like Geometric and Infotech Enterprise, but only on declines.
[06:35:34 PM] => Ayan : Mascot system CEO said the company has seen the worst and now on there will be sequential quarter to quarter growth(though no per cent growth figure given)at 220 how is the stock poised?Same guidance for Sonata soft. is also given...
[06:35:43 PM] => A.K.: There was a change this quarter in the COO, after a poor December quarter and it appears things are now settling down. Still Early, but let us wait for one quarter. Sonata also is improving, but very very slowly.
[06:35:53 PM] => Ravi: Idont have HBO. Can you suggest entry level?
[06:37:18 PM] => A.K.: HPCL at around Rs 260, BPCL around RS 265 and ONGC around Rs 370.
[06:37:26 PM] => Balkrishna: where is the sensex heading towards ?
[06:37:38 PM] => A.K.: On the downside, first support at 3280 and then 3100. There could be some sort of a bottom in the next two-three days.
[06:38:08 PM] => Deepa shah: Sir, In auto ancillaries sector any good value buys at current levels? How is Wellwin Ind. stock looks like?
[06:38:17 PM] => A.K.: I Like Subros, SKF Bearings and Bharat Forge, but only on declines. Wellwin, I don't track.
[06:39:19 PM] => Joy : repeatedly you are saying auto is good. Any good picks at current levels
[06:39:28 PM] => A.K.: The sector is good, but the market at the moment is not. Be patient and buy auto stocks as just recommended in a falling market.
[06:40:16 PM] => Preetam: Levels at which i can invest in Polaris / Neyveli lignite /
[06:40:24 PM] => A.K.: Neyveli lignite can be invested around Rs 23-24 levels.
[06:42:57 PM] => Ayan: Sir you were bullish on VSNL? What is your view on the stock
[06:43:23 PM] => A.K.: I was bullish, I am bullish and the current price reflects my bullishness. As per the press conference, it appears 65 per cent shares will be accepted and the recent performance of Intel SAT clearly shows the underlying strength in VSNL. There is almost Rs 120 cash in the balance sheet and the current business is valued at only Rs 60. I suggest to hold the stock.
[06:43:51 PM] => Jitroy: Should I buy HP/BP at current price?and for what time horizon?
[06:44:01 PM] => A.K.: Just recommended. Time Horizon 4-8 months.
[06:44:44 PM] => Joy: Where are all the Q\'s on Himachal, Global , DSQ , Infosys, Satyam gone .Looks like everybody has forgotten the darlings of yesteryears.... ure call on these
[06:44:56 PM] => A.K.: THANK GOODNESS.
[06:46:11 PM] => karthic: what is the prospects for padmalaya teleflims?
[06:46:21 PM] => A.K.: Zee Telefilms has taken a substantial stake in the company and since then activity has reduced.
[06:47:18 PM] => mittapally: for particular stoch if sellers are more & buyers are less by 25% will the stock prise will go up or down
[06:47:31 PM] => A.K.: There is no such rule or yardstick by which this can be measured
[06:50:36 PM] => Amit: BEML CAN REACH TO 100 IN SHORT TIME SIR?
[06:50:49 PM] => A.K.: Possible, but I would not like to buy the share at this point of time.
[06:51:24 PM] => Vinaya: is zee a good pick?
[06:51:34 PM] => A.K.: I don't like the stock and find it very expensive.
[06:52:16 PM] => Sanjay: Sir, what is your web page add? Where Can I see your daily
[06:52:32 PM] => A.K.: Unfortunately, I don't own any web page.
[06:54:02 PM] => Amit: CAN I BUY BHEL AT THIS STAGE. IS IT POSSIBLE FOR ME TO GET 200+ IN THIS STOCKS.
[06:54:17 PM] => A.K.: BHEL is not an outperformer to the Sensex. It would move with the markets. I would advise buying only on declines.
[06:54:55 PM] => Raj: In AUTO ANCILIARY HOW DO U RATE UCAL FUEL & AMTEK INDIA
[06:55:04 PM] => A.K.: Good companies, but the liquidity in Amtek India is poor by all standards.
[06:56:36 PM] => Amit: IS IT POSSIBLE FOR ME TO GET 175-180 IN TATA POWER AND IF YES HOW MUCH TIME WILL IT TAKE SIR
[06:56:46 PM] => A.K.: How panatone goes forward from here and what role Tata Power plays in future growth of panatone will decide price movement. Being an optimist, if things go well it could happen in less than 12 months
[06:57:49 PM] => Mittapally: If the sensex drops suddenly & sharply 25 points what should be the probable cause. Sudden variations like today what we have seen.
[06:58:00 PM] => A.K.: Selling in Sensex stocks, some adverse news. Today, news about HPCL, BPCL divestment being delayed shook the market.
[06:58:58 PM] => Partha: what is your view on metal stocks nalco , indo gulf ?
[06:59:06 PM] => A.K.: Indo Gulf around Rs 50 looks attractive, but has run into resistance around Rs 58-60. Nalco divestment is the driver.
[07:00:05 PM] => Myiris: Lastly the views expressed by Mr.Arun Kejriwal have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com
[07:00:17 PM] => Myiris : That�s the end of the chat session for today
[07:00:25 PM] => Myiris : We thank you all for logging on
[07:00:35 PM] => Myiris : Our thanks to Mr Arun Kejriwal for sparing time to come on the chat session.
[07:00:43 PM] => Myiris : We�ll bring you more on Myiris chat masala
[07:00:50 PM] => Myiris : Till then its bye from us
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