Mr Naveen Fernandes is a vice president in the sales department at Orbis Financial Corporation. He is also holds the degree of certified financial planner. Mr Fernandes has studied at St. Aloysius School and College, Mangalore and St. Joseph`s College, Bangalore.
His previous stints with the financial industry include Enam Securities Pvt. Ltd., Sahara Mutual Fund and JM Financial Mutual Fund, Former Member and Mangalore Stock Exchange.
Leenachandan:040449 : Hello Sir, we welcome to Live Chat at myiris.com
Naveen.Fernandes:040528 : Hi. Good to be here
Naveen.Fernandes:040530 :
Mehul:040647 : Sir, could you please throw some light on the market trends in the short, long and medium term
Naveen.Fernandes:040929 : The market looks expensive now. Short term the market might find highs with liquidity, those who lost opportunities to enter at good valuations chasing the bus and some "green shoots", or good economic news. Medium, this is a bubble that will burst sooner than later and there might be opps to buy cheap. Long term - we are all dead, but that is not my quote.
Ranjana:041106 : What is your outlook for the primary markets especially IPOs
Naveen.Fernandes:041408 : When the markets were down we had no IPOs. They would have to be priced low, but would have limited chance of getting subscription. Clearly they are now getting subscribed at good (high) prices. As an investor, treat any investment on merits. Investment will be profitable only if you buy cheap - apply f you would buy the stock in the market, at at least 10% above IPO price - this is to make allowances for the 20-25 day time lag between application and listing and calamities during those days
Hiten:041316 : Will gold rally further, or should we sell it off?
Naveen.Fernandes:042008 : Gold is in bubble territory. There is limited supply and huge liquidity pumped in by all global economies to overcome the depression. This is chasing assets of all kinds. When liquidity is reversed prices will fall. The weak US$ is also helping gold rally. I am a bit nervous of the streched valuations, but bubbles can grow very big before they burst. Remember gold is a useless asset, in that it pays no interest or dividend
Hiten:042114 : Thankyou Sir, So in regards, would you disadvice to buy on ETFs as well?
Hiten:042209 : Gold ETF is what is being talked of
Naveen.Fernandes:042344 : ETFs are a great and efficient way(including on tax) to hold assets like gold. If you would like to buy gold the best way is ETFs. I just think that gold is expensive, but oil was expensive at $100 before it went to $147. I believe, broadly, that gold is expensive at current prices. All opinions are personal and can go very wrong :)
Hemlata:041632 : What according to you is a perfect portfolio mix of investment assets, considering the present the scenario? This is especially for conservative investors who want to achieve a goal of capital appreciation.
Naveen.Fernandes:042920 : A conservative investor would stick true to those words - CONSERVATIVE?! The better tax collections and late monsoons being decent, the govt deficit might not be as bad as initially believed. Tax collections are better and butress that thought. I would look at a part of my money in liuid plus type of investments, some in Income Funds, retain some equities ensuring I have a low PE on the portfolio. I would buy stock with my Liquid Plus money when I have a big fall in the markets and I see value. Tha might well be aroung 12,000 sensex, or a bit more
Naveen.Fernandes:042952 : Capital appreciation and returns will be from both debt and equity
Maninder:042607 : Given the recent improvenet in the market sentiments, would equities be a better option to invest in? If yes which stocks would you recommend?
Naveen.Fernandes:043321 : I prefer not to speak of individual stocks, partly because that is noty permitted on this chat! The rule for making money is to buy low and sell high. Sentiments are a fools game. The Guru's who have really made money suggest buying when there is despondancy, and SELLING when sentiments are good. Equities, in my opinion, should be a small part of your portfolio at this level.
Leenachandan:043704 : Can you suggest some cues on when is the right time to sell equities?
Naveen.Fernandes:044035 : The market had gone from a sensex PE of about 30 in Jan 2008 to about 8-9 in Oct 2008. It is currently at about 21. The long term extreme range for the sensex is 10 - 20 and normal range is 14-17. Have the guts to sell when prices are high. More important BUY when it is cheap. I am sad that too few of my friends bought at 8,000. Even worse, I must have been among few who sold at 21,000 sensex. When you feel greedy, sell and take a vacation. Ensure you have money to buy cheap. You need money to buy, unless you have a currency printing press that the RBI is unaware of! So you also have to sell when you have crazy valuations.
Naveen.Fernandes:044143 : Then, of course, the market can go to higher insanity. You will need to have the discipline to sit on your hands and enjoy debt market returns during this period. Just don't be around when the bubble bursts in your face!
Roshni:044220 : How cheap/costly are lending rates today? Is it advisable to apply for loans considering the festive season is underway.
Naveen.Fernandes:044240 : I love this question. Selling is the MOST difficult decision to make!
Naveen.Fernandes:044832 : Loans are cheap now. They can get lower as there is huge liquidity. During this month we have seen heights of 1,50,000 crores in the daily reverse repo at 3.25% with the RBI. Inter-bank rates are also low. An important factor is that lenders are talking of rates firming. This shows a desperation to lend. In 1999-2000 the big bankers spoke of higher rates everytime they cut within the fortnight. The festive season is the only time in the year there is traditional tightness with actual cash being wthdrawn and call rates shooting up. If you are borroe=wing to buy long term assets, like your first house, then borrow. If it is to take your GF to dinner, don't. Cook a cheaper meal at home.
Naveen.Fernandes:044910 : Roshni - the GF bit is not for you. Make it husband/ BF.
Hemal:045028 : Which sectors according to you one can bet blindly at the moment?
Naveen.Fernandes:045318 : Sectors are best avoided. I like sugar, non-UP but at times like this we should best be in diversified stocks.
Naveen.Fernandes:045358 : Never do any investment blindly. Do a lot of homework. Money is precious and you do not want to lose
Rahana:045352 : Can one look at insurance from an investment perspective?
Naveen.Fernandes:045837 : Insurance is a bet between the insurer and insured about an event like death. Unless you have a clear picture on low costs, especially initial expenses, along with a very long investment horizon, use insurance for insurance. In a lighter vein, you do not eat meat to get vitamins from vegetables the animal has eaten. Why use insurance to get the indirect benefit of investing? Ensure you have sufficient insurance - or all your goals and dreams can be lost to the unexpected. Then invest wisely and carefully to get the best returns for your money
Nikhil:045952 : It has been observed sir, that auto stocks rally for a few days when sales figures are announced. Last month auto industry reported a rise of around 8% in sales. Are you positive of good growth this month too? Can one bet on auto stocks considering narro term perspective?
Nikhil:050054 : narrow*
Naveen.Fernandes:050358 : There seems to be global pressure on auto companies. India is a fortunate exception. Still the indications are of a war in the market, which will be good for car buyers. What is good for buyers is not always good for the producer, therefore his shareholder. I expect some consolidation in the industry, with a goos bit of amalgamation. Prefer to wait. I would like to anyway avoid highly leveraged companies, esp if the borrowing is to buy other manufacturers. This, for me, is not the time to take risks.
Nirupama:050459 : What is the technical trend one should look out for considering near term outlook?
Naveen.Fernandes:050800 : I am not a technical analyst. I see fundamentals and they have worked well for me! The only things i see in technicals, however, is huge open positions, which are an indication of a market fall and regular bear traps, since April this year, indicating no clear peak. Short term it's anybody's market.
Nirupama:051124 : How are/is the realty stocks/industry performing at present? Can one think of investing in real estate sector/buy shares of real estate sector
Naveen.Fernandes:051502 : Tough call. A year ago property was the worst investment idea, today it's back. The papers speak of too much supply and banks are lending less on property. Today papers said that rentals (commercial) have dropped a lot. In the balance I prefer to avoid crowds and euphoria. That way I make more certain profits, even if they are smaller than speculative
That is the end of the chat session for today.
Thank you all for logging in.
Till then its bye from us.